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Schleck wins the battle but Contador will win the war

Stage 17: Pau > Col du Tourmalet (174 km)

On Monday Alberto Contador demonstrated the ruthless behaviour of a winner. Today he also showed, for perhaps the first time in his three Tours de France, the behaviour of a champion by allowing Andy Schleck the courtesy of finishing first at the summit of the Col du Tourmalet after a titanic two-man battle in which they left the rest of the field quite literally lost in the mist. By crossing the line immediately behind Schleck, the defending champion all but assured himself of a third yellow jersey when the race concludes in Paris on Sunday afternoon.

Andy Schleck leads Alberto Contador across the finish at the summit of the Col du Tourmalet (image courtesy of Steephill.tv/Reuters)

Stage 17 as it happened (part 1)

Stage 17 as it happened (part 2)

On a day which started out cold, wet and miserable and gradually got better, a seven-man break quickly established itself soon after the peloton had departed from Pau and had established a lead of around nine minutes by the summit of the day’s second climb, the first-category Col de Marie-Blanque. In between was Carlos Sastre, who attempted to bridge the gap and almost but did not quite succeed. Having at one stage closed to within a minute of the leaders, he would ultimately be absorbed back into the bunch and quickly shot out of the back, his energy spent in an enormous effort that was no less beautiful for its futility.

The peloton encounter sheep on the Col du Soulor (image courtesy of Steephill.tv/Reuters)

In the meantime, an Astana-led, rain-jacketed peloton tip-toed down the wet descent before starting to gently reel in the deficit on the slopes of the Col du Soulor. Here the peloton came under attack from an unusual source – a herd of sheep which veered perilously across the road in front of the pack, before running alongside the riders for a while.

By the time the peloton arrived at the foot of the Tourmalet, they had reduced the leaders’ advantage to under four minutes, with Astana, Saxo Bank and Rabobank driving forwards to support the ambitions of Contador, Schleck and Denis Menchov. With the gap tumbling with virtually every pedal-stroke, the breakaway group began to disintegrate rapidly as both the urgency and the gradient increased. The two Sky men, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Juan Antonio Flecha, were the first to crack, tumbling rapidly backwards into the unwelcoming and unsympathetic clutches of the peloton. As the engine room of the Saxo Bank team – first Fabian Cancellara, then Chris Anker Sørensen and finally Jakob Fuglsang – took it in turns to bury themselves for the cause, the peloton started to thin out rapidly as even the elite riders slipped inexorably towards the back of the group and then found the elastic snapping. The rainbow jersey of Cadel Evans was swallowed up and extinguished by the gloom of the gathering fog. Contador’s senior lieutenant Alexandre Vinokourov soon befell the same fate, followed by his last Astana teammate, Daniel Navarro.

One by one the bit-part players were removed from the stage. And then, just as Fuglsang finally blew up with a little over 10 km remaining, having fulfilled the team’s game-plan to the letter, Schleck kicked – and this time his chain stayed in place. Contador leapt onto his wheel, and within 200 metres, the elite group had been reduced to a pair of yellow and white-clad rockets on two wheels and a weary bunch of chasers. Schleck and Contador looked as if they had sprouted wings, leaving the rest of the top ten in this year’s race floundering in their wake, swatting aside the remains of the breakaway group as if they weren’t even there, and closing a gap of over a minute to its final survivor, Alexandr Kolobnev, in the space of barely 1,500 metres.

At times it looked as if the pair were racing in a time long gone by, with the combination of the fog and the mountain turning the high-speed, multi-coloured beast which is the Tour de France peloton into a slow-moving, rag-tag, monochrome affair. It certainly looked as if they were in a race of their own: actually, they were. For every pedal turn of the final eight kilometres, Schleck tried every trick he knew to shake off Contador in search of the minute or more he knew he needed to find, but nothing he did seemed to make any difference. Whether it was sustained high tempo or stop-start accelerations, the defending champion covered every move so quickly as to render them almost invisible to the naked eye. It was a tremendously gutsy showing by Schleck, but it was also a superlative display of defensive riding by Contador. Only once, with under four kilometres left, did Contador nose ahead with one brutal kick, but Schleck quickly clawed him back and, to his immense credit, kept plugging away.

In spite of the tactical jousting, their advantage over their pursuers continued to extend, peaking at around 1:20 and holding steady even through the final kilometre as Contador sat relentlessly nose-to-tail on Schleck’s wheel, ready to pounce in the final stretch and claim what would have been his first stage win this year. But pounce he did not, allowing Schleck to take the spoils of battle with an emotional punch of the air, knowing full well that he had achieved exactly what he had set out to do in avoiding the loss of any time. The image of the pair putting an arm around each other as they rode on after the finish was a pleasing one at the end of an awkward week.

Although privately he knows that his chance to win the Tour effectively died today, Schleck was far from downcast at the end:

I’m satisfied with the stage win but I also wanted to turn white into yellow, but unfortunately it wasn’t possible. I changed rhythm and I tried everything but I think we’re on the same level on the climbs. In the end he [Contador] didn’t sprint to win the stage because I did the most work. I have a lot of respect for that; it shows that he’s a great champion. El Pistolero is strong, huh? I could not drop him. He was always there. He even attacked me to show, “Hey, listen, young boy, I’m still here. You’d better stop playing these games with me.”

I know that Alberto is stronger than me in the time trial. Who knows what will happen? I will keep fighting.

Contador admitted that his task had been made easier by having the luxury of being able to follow Schleck’s attack and ride defensively:

It was very difficult today. Andy was really strong. I knew if I could stay with him, I could get through the day. The truth is I had good legs.

It was important to defend the jersey today. I attacked him once, but I could see he was strong. Everyone always asks if the Tour is over. It’s never over until Paris.

It is easy to forget that there were 169 other men who finished today’s stage, but Canada’s Ryder Hesjedal underlined an impressive Tour by finishing fourth today and moving up to eighth overall. Samuel Sánchez finished eight seconds ahead of Denis Menchov despite a serious-looking fall early in the day, although his 21-second advantage is unlikely to be enough to defend his third place overall. And Chris Horner, the forgotten man in a RadioShack containing Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden, finished eighth on the day and now stands tenth on GC, higher than any of his more illustrious teammates.

Finally, there was no change in the green jersey standings – that will almost certainly go all the way to Paris – but Anthony Charteau was confirmed as the winner of the polka dot jersey in a competition that fizzled out after none of the main contenders scored any points today. (Really, if not for the fact that it is the only jersey the French win these days – Charteau makes it 11 victories in the last 17 years – the competition is barely worth the effort.)

For Contador, the act of allowing Schleck to win came at a not insignificant cost, as he remains on track to become only the seventh man to win the Tour without claiming a single stage. But it was a classy gesture which goes some way to repairing the PR damage his actions and words caused after stage 15, refuting the accusation that he is a rider who races ruthlessly and is incapable of winning with grace. By not winning the battle today, it did no damage whatsoever to his chances of triumphing in a war which is now all but won. Alberto Contador may never be the most popular Tour champion, but then neither is Armstrong. But, like the American, he does have the makings of a great champion. And, as he demonstrated today at the summit of one of the most venerated mountains on the Tour’s itinerary, he now realises that sometimes finishing second can be even better than being first.

And so we exit the Pyrenees, after a hugely thrilling stage which, although it didn’t quite give us the drama of a decisive result, gave us spectacle in abundance. Now we are literally on the downward slope. No more mountains,  just flat, rolling roads from here to the blessed relief of the streets of Paris. It may not be visible on the horizon yet – even after the fog has lifted – but the end is now very much within sight, and it is an end which, barring major mishap, will see Alberto Contador wearing yellow on the Champs-Élysées for the third time.

Stage 17 result:

1. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) 5:03:29

2. Alberto Contador (Astana) same time

3. Joaquín Rodríquez (Katusha) +1:18

4. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) +1:27

5. Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) +1:32

6. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +1:40

7. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) +1:40

8. Chris Horner (RadioShack) +1:45

9. Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +1:48

10. Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo) +2:14

General classification (yellow jersey):

1. Alberto Contador (Astana) 83:32:39

2. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) +0:08

3. Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) +3:32

4. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +3:53

5. Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +5:27

6. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) +6:41

7. Joaquín Rodríquez (Katusha) +7:03

8. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) +9:18

9. Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo) +10:12

10. Chris Horner (RadioShack) +10:37

Selected others:

23. Lance Armstrong (RadioShack) +37:58

24. Bradley Wiggins (Sky) +41:03

171. Bert Grabsch (HTC-Columbia) +4:26:56

Points classification (green jersey):

1. Thor Hushovd (Cervelo) 191 pts

2. Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) 187

3. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Columbia) 162

4. José Joaquín Rojas (Caisse d’Epargne) 149

5. Robbie McEwen (Katusha) 138

Climbers’ classification (polka dot jersey):

1. Anthony Charteau (Bbox Bouygues Telecom) 143 pts

2. Christophe Moreau (Caisse d’Epargne) 128

3. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) 116

4. Alberto Contador (Astana) 112

5. Damiano Cunego (Lampre) 99

Stage 18 preview:

Start & finish: Salies-de-Béarn > Bordeaux

Distance & type: 198 km, plain

Prediction: This should be a relatively straightforward transition stage ending in a bunch sprint. However, with the sprinters weary after the Pyrenees, a determined escape group may have a better chance than usual of surviving. Expect the usual breakaway suspects – plus anyone who has yet to really show themselves at this Tour and has yet to secure a new contract for next year – to be desperate to work their way into what may well be a larger break than normal. With the fate of the green jersey still in the balance, do not be surprised if Thor Hushovd and Alessandro Petacchi pop up in the breakaway too. Nonetheless, expect the peloton to come back together in time for the finish. Just. And expect a small British fellow in green shades to be in the hunt for his fourth stage win …

For more reviews and informed comments about the Tour de France, please read any (or all!) of the following excellent blogs:

Marc’s sports blog

Todd Kinsey’s TDF blog

SportPH

Cyclingproject365

Richard Tulloch’s Life on the Road

The social cyclist

Gonecycling

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Tour de France stage 17 – live (part 2)

Stage 17: Pau > Col du Tourmalet (174 km)

Welcome to the second part of today’s live-blog of stage 17, finishing at the summit of the Col du Tourmalet.

For commentary from earlier today, click on part one of the live-blog here.

2.30 pm: Here’s the current state of play. A group of seven riders broke away from the peloton early on, consisting of Remi Puriol (Cofidis), Kristjan Koren (Liquigas-Doimo), Alexandr Kolobnev (Katusha), Marcus Burghardt (BMC), Rubén Pérez Moreno (Euskaltel-Euskadi), and Juan Antonio Flecha and Edvald Boasson Hagen (both Sky).

They lead an accelerating peloton by six minutes, with Carlos Sastre about two minutes ahead of the main bunch, having unsuccessfully attempted to bridge the gap earlier. Aside from the gruppetto, everyone is currently on the slopes of the first-category Col du Soulor, with only the mighty Tourmalet to follow.

Here’s something I thought might be useful. Here is a break-down of how the gaps between Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador have ebbed and flowed during the Tour:

Prologue: Contador finishes 0:42 quicker than Schleck. Contador leads by 0:42.

Stages 1-2: No change.

Stage 3: Schleck gains 1:13 over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles, aided by Contador’s rear-wheel problem near the finish. Schleck leads by 0:31.

Stage 4-7: No change.

Stage 8: Schleck gains 0:10 with a final-kilometre attack on the climb to Avoriaz, then claims the yellow jersey on the following stage. Schleck leads by 0:41.

Stages 9-11: No change, although Schleck took over the yellow jersey from Cadel Evans after stage nine.

Stage 12: Contador gains 0:10 with an attack on the short but steep closing climb to the aerodrome in Mende. Schleck leads by 0:31.

Stages 13-14: No change.

Stage 15: Contador takes advantage of Schleck’s dropped chain on the Port de Bales, gaining 0:39 and taking the yellow jersey for the first time. Contador leads by 0:08.

Stage 16: No change.

Samuel Sánchez

2.35 pm: I forgot to say before that third-placed Samuel Sánchez had a nasty accident early on and was delayed for some time. He was paced back to the peloton by his team, but you have to wonder if this might compromise him on the Tourmalet.

2.40 pm: 60 km to go, and 5:25 is the gap to an ever-reducing peloton.

2.45 pm: Lots of mist. And now sheep cut across the front of the main field, nearly causing a big accident. They are still running along the side of the road beside the riders. (None of them are using a chain-guard, incidentally.)

2.50 pm: The seven leaders are now over the top of the Soulor and starting the descent, 4:41 ahead of the peloton. The fog is quite heavy now and the road is damp, making an already tricky descent distinctly treacherous. This is where these guys earn their corn. And chapeau to the spectators lining the mountain.

2.55 pm: Not that it affects the polka dot jersey standings one iota, but here are the top three from the third climb:

Col du Soulor (category 1): 1. Burghardt (15 pts), 2. Koren (13), 3. Pérez (11).

3.05 pm: So, before we get to the Tourmalet, let’s reflect for a moment on the green and polka dot jerseys.

The top of the points competition is unchanged, after the breakaway mopped up the points at the first intermediate sprint, and will do the same at the second one before the Tourmalet:

1. Thor Hushovd 191 pts, 2. Alessandro Petacchi 187, 3. Mark Cavendish 162

And, with just the Tourmalet to go, the top of the King of the Mountains classification is:

1. Anthony Charteau 143 pts, 2. Christophe Moreau 128, 3. Damiano Cunego 99

Cunego can no longer win the competition, and Moreau needs to score at least 15 points more than Charteau on the Tourmalet to snatch the jersey at the death.

Points are available on the Tourmalet for the top ten finishers as follows: 40, 36, 32, 28, 24, 20, 16, 14, 12 and 10. That means Moreau needs to finish at least seventh, which will be a big ask for the oldest man in the race on a day when the GC heads of state will all be massed up front for the final battle. You have to think Charteau has one arm in the jersey already.

Carlos Sastre

3.15 pm: Sastre continues to battle on in no-man’s land. You have to hand it to him – he has spent the best part of three hours pedalling on his own. He’s either very brave, very stupid or really fancied a day on his own. Chapeau, Carlos.

The weather is definitely improving. Still damp on the road, but the rain has stopped. It’s a small mercy, but the riders will take it.

3.20 pm: Result of the second intermediate sprint:

1. Boasson Hagen (6 pts), 2. Kolobnev, 3. Puriol (2).

The leaders’ advantage over the peloton has eked back out to around 5:30.

Ads on ITV4 for the Skyrides. There was one in Ealing last Sunday. 10 more to go!

Robert Gesink

3.25 pm: Rabobank are joining Astana and Saxo Bank at the front of the peloton. Look out for Robert Gesink to launch an early attack to try to spring his leader Denis Menchov.

3.30 pm: Sastre is caught by the peloton. He achieved absolutely nothing, but it was fun to watch.

3.40 pm: Ooh, a sighting of the lesser-spotted Bradley Wiggins! The seven leaders have 18.6 km to go, and now past the official start of the Tourmalet climb, although they have actually been riding uphill for a while. That sound you hear is the blue touch paper being lit. The breakaway’s lead over the peloton is 3:50. Astana, Saxo Bank and Rabobank are bossing the main field. Here we go!

Edvald Boasson Hagen

3.45 pm: Boom! Edvald Boasson Hagen cracks and drops off the lead group.

Boom! Make that five. Juan Antonio Flecha is dropped too as Alexandr Kolobnev puts the hammer down. That’s both Sky men in the breakaway gone.

Alexandr Kolobnev

3.50 pm: Kolobnev has good pedigree, having finished second in Liège-Bastogne-Liège earlier this year. Saxo Bank are really cranking it up now with Fabian Cancellara on the front. Some serious riders are disappearing out of the back now: Cadel Evans, Thomas Lofkvist

Cancellara blows, grinds to an abrupt halt and almost falls off his bike. What an effort! Chris Anker Sørensen takes over.

Up front, it is just Kolobnev and Marcus Burghardt left. Oh no, now it’s just Kolobnev, who kicks and leaves his rival for dead. The breakaway is now just one man,with a lead of about 2:30 over the yellow jersey group.

3.55 pm: The speed with which the yellow jersey group is climbing the Tourmalet is quite incredible. Saxo boys still pushing hard. Contador is glued to Schleck’s rear wheel. I wonder if he’s examining his chain?

Alexandre Vinokourov slides off the back of the yellow jersey group. I can see Lance Armstrong is still there, though.

Looks like Contador only has Daniel Navarro left for company. As predicted, Saxo Bank are trying to isolate the champion. Sørensen is cooked, and Jakob Fuglsang takes over the pace-making.

4.00 pm: A commercial break? You cannot be serious …

4.05 pm: 10 km to go, 1:17 the gap to Kolobnev. We’re approaching the moment at which Schleck has to roll the dice.

Carlos Barredo attacks.

Schleck attacks! And ITV are still on a bloody commercial!

Kolobnev’s lead is now down to 20 seconds. It’s only a matter of time now. Contador is the only one who has been able to respond to Schleck’s acceleration. Menchov, Sanchev and Ryder Hesjedal are trying to close the gap.

Schleck and Contador complete the catch of Kolobnev with 8.4 km to go.

4.10 pm: So this is it now: Schleck versus Contador. The Spaniard is doing all he needs to do, sticking to Schleck’s rear wheel and riding to defend his yellow jersey. If they’re still together at the summit, he will no doubt whip out from behind him to win what will be his first stage win of this year’s Tour.

4.15 pm: Schleck is mostly sitting down in the saddle, teeth gritted, trying to just grind Contador down. Contador is dancing on his pedals a lot more, but looks pretty comfortable. The other elite riders are nowhere to be seen – not that anyone can see very far in this fog.

6 km to go. No sign of weakness from Contador yet. He looks like he’s out for a gentle Sunday afternoon ride. Incredible.

Schleck and Contador lead the other GC elite men by 1:16. The Luxembourger may not have broken Contador, but he is head and shoulders above everyone else in this race.

Schleck ups his pace again, but Contador keeps the elastic tight. 4.5 km remaining. Even if Schleck can break Contador, he won’t make big gains.

4.20pm: Contador launches a huge acceleration just beyond the 4 km banner. Fantastic response by Schleck, who pulls up alongside him and looks him straight into the eye, as if to say, “Nice try.” Gladiatorial stuff this.

Never mind Chain-gate, how much will Schleck regret the 42 seconds he lost to Contador in the prologue?

Arrgh! Borat mankinis!

Inside 3 km now. Barring a major surprise, Alberto Contador is the winner of the 2010 Tour de France.

4.25 pm: Back to stalemate. Schleck taps out a fierce tempo, Contador has his wheel. I think Schleck has given everything and doesn’t have another attack left in him.

4.30 pm: And there’s the flamme rouge. We are in the final kilometre of the final climb of the 2010 Tour. You have to back Contador to take the stage – Schleck has done all the work on the climb. Contador looks ready to pounce at any moment.

Honestly, how narrow is this road?!?

Schleck wins the world’s slowest uncontested sprint ever. That was classy by Contador, who still hasn’t won a stage and would no doubt have loved one today.

And, er, some other people are finishing.

You won’t be able to see this, but I have just stood up and applauded. We have just watched the two best men in the sport of professional road cycling slug it out wheel-to-wheel. No mechanical problems. To tactics. No teammates. And a tremendous piece of sportsmanship by Contador to gift Schleck the stage. It has been absolutely magnificent. Chapeau!

4.35 pm: The view looking back from the finish is amazing. Riders are coming into view from out of the mist in ones and twos, and crawling over the finish line. It’s like watching a scene from another time.

4.40 pm: Okay, let’s try to make sense of all of that. The stage result is as follows:

Stage 17 result:

1. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) 5:03:29

2. Alberto Contador (Astana) same time

3. Joaquín Rodríquez (Katusha) +1:18

4. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) +1:27

5. Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) +1:32

6. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +1:40

7. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) +1:40

8. Chris Horner (RadioShack) +1:45

9. Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +1:48

10. Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo) +2:14

General classification after stage 17:

1. Alberto Contador (Astana) 83:32:39

2. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) +0:08

3. Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) +3:32

4. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +3:53

5. Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +5:27

6. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) +6:41

7. Joaquín Rodríquez (Katusha) +7:03

8. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) +9:18

9. Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo) +10:12

10. Chris Horner (RadioShack) +10:37

So, Schleck looks to have secured a top-two finish now. There is no change in the order of the top six, but Levi Leipheimer slips out of the top ten. Gutsy ride by Sánchez to finish ahead of Menchov despite a chest injury from his early crash, although 21 seconds is probably not enough to protect his final podium spot from the Russian.

Fantastic rides by Ryder Hesjedal and Chris Horner too. And Jurgen van den Broeck‘s solid finish should see him secure a top-five position.

Barring a significant problem for Contador, it looks like he will wear the yellow jersey into Paris on Sunday.

Anthony Charteau is confirmed as the winner of the polka dot jersey.

And the green jersey will go right down to the wire.

4.55 pm: Right, that’s it from me for now. I’m off for a massage and a vat of pasta. I’ll post a full stage report later – by then, the gruppetto will hopefully have finished …

Tour de France stage 17 – live (part 1)

Stage 17: Pau > Col du Tourmalet (174 km)

Hello! Welcome to my live-blog for stage 17, the final stage in the Pyrenees this year and possibly the decisive moment of the entire Tour. Today we start in Pau, where stage 16 finished before yesterday’s rest day, and finish on top of the legendary Col du Tourmalet for only the second time in its storied history.

Here is the profile of today’s stage, which is scheduled to start at 12.30 local time (11.30 UK time):

Today’s four climbs are:

13.5 km: Côte de Renoir (category 4), 2.2 km, 6% average gradient

56.5 km: Col de Marie-Blanque (category 1), 9.3 km, 7.6 %

117.5 km: Col du Soulor (category 1), 11.9 km, 7.8 %

174 km : Col du Tourmalet (hors catégorie), 18.6 km, 7.5%

10.40 am: Here are the current top ten riders in the general classification:

1. Alberto Contador (Astana) 78:29:10

2. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) +0:08

3. Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) +2:00

4. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +2:13

5. Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +3:39

6. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) +5:01

7. Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack) +5:25

8. Joaquín Rodríquez (Katusha) +5:45

9. Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) +7:12

10. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) +7:51

Obviously, the focus of attention will be on the top two, but don’t ignore Samual Sánchez and particularly Denis Menchov, who are battling it out for third and will certainly consider second place a possibility if they can make up time on either of the leaders today.

10.55 am: Apparently it’s wet and miserable in Pau, according to our resident RadioShack weather forecaster Andreas Klöden on Twitter:

Oh no, woke up this morning and it rains and storms. Today last mountain stage, 3 hard climbs. Could be very cold today :-(

I’m now getting a mental image of the riders being greeted by black clouds and biblical floods on the Tourmalet.

Wouldn’t it be great if you could get mid-race updates from the riders? Or do the French have a law about not using your mobiles while on the road? I’m just saying …

11.25 am: With the 172 remaining riders now rolling towards the official start, here are the top five riders in the points classification:

Green jersey leader Thor Hushovd

1. Thor Hushovd (Cervelo) 191 pts

2. Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) 187

3. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Columbia) 162

4. José Joaquín Rojas (Caisse d’Epargne) 149

5. Robbie McEwen (Katusha) 138

There are two sprint points today, at 33 km, and then at 32.5 km from the finish between the Col du Soulor and the Col du Tourmalet.

Expect Thor Hushovd and Alessandro Petacchi to contest the first sprint while Mark Cavendish enjoys the scenery from the rear of the peloton. The second will be irrelevant in terms of the green jersey contenders, who by then will be suffering silently at in the gruppetto.

And here are the current standings in the King of the Mountains competition:

Polka dot jersey leader Anthony Charteau

1. Anthony Charteau (Bbox Bouygues Telecom) 143 pts

2. Christophe Moreau (Caisse d’Epargne) 128

3. Damiano Cunego (Lampre) 99

4. Sandy Casar (FDJ) 93

5. Jérôme Pineau (Quick Step) 92

There is a maximum of 73 points available for the climbers today: three at the summit of the Renoir, 15 each on the Marie-Blanque and Soulor, and then a massive 40 going to the stage winner at the summit of the Tourmalet.

Realistically, the polka dot jersey comes down to a head-to-head between Anthony Charteau and Christophe Moreau, both of whom can be expected to participate in any early breakaway today to target points on the first three mountains. Don’t be surprised if Bbox sneak a second man into the escape to act as a spoiler too.

Remember, the Tourmalet is the final categorised climb of this year’s Tour, so at the end of today we will know who the winner of the polka dot jersey is.

11.30 am: Here are some more weather updates. Here is ITV Cycling on Twitter:

Very overcast in Pau as the riders roll through. The rain is holding off but it has been really coming down in the past 48 hours. Umbrellas are out on the roadside and many riders are wearing arm warmers and waterproofs as they approach the start of racing.

And commentary doyen Phil Liggett too:

The Tourmalet is beneath a storm and very cold. This will be a very difficult day. Feel sorry for the campers. Even the sheep want cover.

Sylvain Chavanel

11.35 am: No surprise that the attacks have started immediately. Sylvain Chavanel has initiated the first breakaway attempt. Twice the yellow jersey in this year’s race, the Quick Step rider has had an extremely active Tour. New contract, please? I’m not going to cover all the early breaks, but I’ll pop back in a while once things have settled down a bit.

Jens Voigt

In the meantime, here’s everyone’s favourite hard-working team man, Jens Voigt, being interviewed immediately after finishing stage 16 on Tuesday, where he crashed heavily on a descent for the second year in a row. Link

Last year’s crash also happened on stage 16 – maybe it’s his unlucky number?

Or maybe it’s an unlucky number for Saxo Bank? Rider number 16 in this year’s race: Fränk Schleck.

12.00 pm: So, we now have an established break of seven riders: Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Step), Kristjan Koren (Liquigas-Doimo), Alexandr Kolobnev (Katusha), Marcus Burghardt (BMC), Rubén Pérez Moreno (Euskaltel-Euskadi), and Juan Antonio Flecha and Edvald Boasson Hagen (both Sky). Their lead over the fourth-category Renoir was just over three minutes.

There are no Saxo Bank, Astana or Rabobank riders in the break, but Pérez could potentially come into play later to support Samuel Sánchez.

Christophe Moreau

Interestingly, there is also no Christophe Moreau, who starts today 15 points behind Anthony Charteau in the King of the Mountains competition. Looks like he will gamble everything on a high finish on the Tourmalet, which carries double points today as the final climb of the stage.

A secondary escape group tried to bridge the gap, but they were shut down quickly by an Astana and RadioShack-led peloton.

12.35 pm: Here’s a bit more information about the Col du Tourmalet.

The highest point on this year’s itinerary at 2,115 metres, the Tourmalet featured on the Tour’s first visit to the Pyrenees 100 years ago. Since then, the race has climbed over the summit 73 times, making it the most frequently used pass on the Tour.

However, only once before (in 1974) has a stage finished on the summit, with Jean-Pierre Danguillaume claiming that singular honour, so today’s winner will be joining an exclusive club.

The Tourmalet has, of course, already featured in this year’s Tour, having been climbed in the opposite direction on Tuesday’s stage 16. In the direction the race will attack the mountain today, it is an 18.6 km slog with an average gradient of 7.5%

And as we know, it is likely to be decisive – or at least play a significant role – in determining the ultimate fate of the yellow jersey.

Update: Apparently it’s Remi Pauriol (Cofidis) and not Chavanel who is the seventh man in the escape group. Oops.

12.45 pm: A couple of updates from the first climb and sprint of the day:

Carlos Sastre

Côte de Renoir (category 4): 1. Kolobnev (3 pts), 2. Pauriol (2),  3. Flecha (1).

First intermediate sprint: 1. Boasson Hagen (6 pts), 2. Flecha (4), 3. Kolobnev (2).

Everyone is now on today’s second climb, the first-category Marie-Blanque. The leaders have a lead of nine minutes on the peloton, with Carlos Sastre in between attempting to come across. And the weather is deteriorating.

1.05 pm: The lead group passes over the summit of the Marie-Blanque without anyone contesting the points. The first three were:

Col de Marie-Blanque (category 1): 1. Flecha (15 pts), 2. Koren (13), Pérez (11).

If nothing else, Sky are at least reminding us they are still in the race after the promise of their first week fizzled out rapidly. That Boasson Hagen, though – he is a real talent.

The peloton is around 8:30 behind, with Astana setting a steady tempo which is rapid enough to be gradually shelling riders out of the back on the upper slopes of a climb which exceeds 11% in places. There goes Petacchi. And Sky’s Steve Cummings. It’s going to be a long afternoon in the gruppetto for these guys.

Sastre is now just 1:20 behind the seven leaders, and will hope to catch them before they start climbing the Soulor.

It’s not getting any drier out on those roads either, and it’s reasonably foggy too. There will be some nervous descenders in that peloton on the way down.

1.25 pm: The race computers are saying that the peloton workload is split as follows: Astana 98%, Saxo Bank 2%. I don’t think that needs any further explanation.

The rain-jackets are on as the peloton tip-toes its way down the damp descent of the Marie-Blanque, holding the gap to the leaders at around the 8:30 mark. It doesn’t look like much fun, this. Still, the scenery’s nice, and it’s not far to the feed zone. Speaking of which: lunch-time. Back in a bit.

1.55 pm: The peloton has just passed through the feed zone. We’re in a quiet phase at the moment, with the gaps remaining steady.

I’ve just seen the Specialized bikes Andy v Alberto TV ad on Europsort. It’s quite funny, but neither will be winning any Oscars any time soon.

I’ve spotted a fair number of Union Jacks by the side of the road already today. Nice to see.

2.05 pm: Here are my thoughts on what I expect to happen on the Tourmalet.

Andy Schleck needs to gain time on Alberto Contador ahead of the time trial. If he can finish today with a minute’s advantage he will feel he has a chance, but ideally he needs at least 90 seconds. Hence he will have to attack earlier than he did on the climb to Avoriaz on stage eight.

The Tourmalet is actually quite a steady climb with relatively few sharp changes of gradient. There is a notable kick-up near the end of the sixth kilometre which comes at the end of a short stretch which is relatively flat. There are also big inclines in kilometres 11 and 13; these are the last big opportunity for Schleck to try to distance Contador by then.

So my guess is that Astana, who have worked quite hard at the front of the peloton throughout the past few days, will try to dictate a reasonably quick tempo on the Tourmalet’s lower slopes to make attacks difficult. At the same time, watch for Saxo Bank to move to the front and set up a drive with Jens Voigt (assuming he is fully recovered from his crash on Tuesday), Jakob Fuglsang and Chris Anker Sørensen at around six kilometres to try to isolate Contador from his teammates. Schleck will then launch his all-or-nothing attack somewhere in the final seven kilometres.

Should Schleck succeed, there is still no need for Contador to panic, as he can afford to concede a little time. And with two very steep sections near the summit, should he have dropped back, he will have opportunities to regroup and recover any deficit as Schleck inevitably starts to tire himself. Contador does not need to win today; at worst, he needs to minimise his losses.

My guess – and it is no more than that – is that Schleck’s attack will succeed, but will net him no more than 30 seconds. So he would then wear the yellow jersey in Saturday’s individual time trial, only to lose it to the Spaniard’s superior ability against the clock.

One final note. Neither contender can afford to ignore Menchov or Sánchez. The Russian in particular is a fine time-trialer, and while Contador and Schleck do not need to completely man-mark these two, if they allow them to escape up the road, work together and gain a minute’s advantage – as they did on Ax 3 Domaines – we will be looking at a genuine four-horse race for the yellow jersey. It would not surprise me if Menchov and Sánchez worked in tandem early on the climb, hoping that the other two will be too preoccupied watching each other.

2.10 pm: I loved this latest entry from Jens Voigt, who is keeping a Tour diary for Bicycling. Here is what happened to him on Tuesday:

About two kilometres into the descent [of the Peyresourde] my front tire blew and I went down. Let me tell you, about the only place that feels good right now is my right ankle. The rest of me is all road rash. Plus I’ve got five stitches in my left elbow and then there are some ribs that are not in the right place! I may have to get x-rays, but I hate x-rays (the radiation), and plus, if I’ve got a fractured rib, what can anyone do about it?

The first team car was behind Andy Schleck, and the second had decided to go up ahead to hand out water bottles at the foot of the next climb. As a result I had no bike, because mine was shattered.

So then the broom wagon pulled up and was like, “Do you want to just get in?” And I said, “Oh no, I don’t need YOU!” But there I am with blood spurting out my left elbow and no bike. Finally, the race organizers got me a bike, but it was this little yellow junior bike. It was way too small for me and even had old-fashioned toe-clip pedals. But that is the only way I could get down the mountain, so I had to ride it for like 15-20 kilometers until I finally got to a team car with my bike.

And that’s why so many of us love Jens!

2.20 pm: The leaders are now on the penultimate climb of the Col du Soulor (category 1). Sastre is 4:44 behind, with the peloton now starting to close at 7:21, as Astana start to crank up the pace.

That’s it for this part of the live-blog. For coverage of the climax of today’s stage, please go to part two here.

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