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My sporting month: April 2012

April 1, 2012 Leave a comment

There’s plenty of sporting action to look forward to in April, with the race for league titles and both domestic and European cup competitions in football, the first of golf’s majors, the conclusion to what has been a pretty dismal pair of winter tours for England’s cricket team, and action of both the four and two-wheeled variety, including cycling’s Track World Championships from Melbourne.

It promises to be a busy, varied and exciting month. Here are five of the best which will be occupying my attention this month.

1. AFL – West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs (1st)

The protracted opening round of the Aussie Rules season concludes with its final two games today, including a 2012 bow for my team, the West Coast Eagles, who travel to the Western Bulldogs hoping to consolidate their remarkable turnaround of last year. Having missed the playoff finals series for the third straight season in 2010, winning just four of 22 games to finish 16th and bottom of the ladder, they improved to 17-5 last year to finish fourth overall. Sadly, they fell to eventual champions Geelong in a one-sided preliminary final (effectively the semi-final round), but still had a lot to be proud of.

It’s easy to mock Aussie Rules as a poor man’s cross between rugby and Friday night pub-brawling, but followers of the sport will appreciate the skill, strength and stamina of its participants (who can regularly land 50-metre kicks on a sixpence) and its no-nonsense approach. You won’t see any of the histrionics or cheating which have become part and parcel of football in recent years, that’s for sure.

2. The Masters (5th-8th)

The Augusta National course, golf’s equivalent of a gladiatorial arena, rarely disappoints – and it surpassed itself last year. South African Charl Schwartzel claimed his maiden PGA Tour victory and his first major with a stunning final round 66. But he would never have had a sniff at the title had Rory McIlroy not self-destructed in spectacular fashion at the same time. Having led after each of the first three rounds and started the final 18 holes with a four-shot lead, the young Northern Irishman unravelled on the back nine, taking a triple-bogey on the 10th hole and then four-putting his way to a double-bogey on the 12th as he finished ten shots behind the winner.

The collapse would have destroyed a lesser man than McIlroy. Instead he went on to capture the US Open two months later and briefly claim the world number one ranking earlier this year. Schwartzel also proved he was no flash in the pan, with top-12 finishes at both the US Open and US PGA. If we have a finish half as dramatic this year, we will be in for a treat.

3. Paris-Roubaix (8th)

April is Spring Classics month in the cycling world, taking in several of the biggest one-day races on the cycling calendar. It is a month of cobbles and hills and sometimes cobbled hills, which is tailor-made for the all-round hard men of the sport – pure sprinters and climbers need not apply – riders such as Fabian Cancellara, Philippe Gilbert and Tom Boonen. From the Tour of Flanders (1st) to Liege-Bastogne-Liege (22nd), this three-week period invariably throws up some of the best racing of the year, cementing reputations and creating new legends.

Paris-Roubaix is many fans’ favourite – it is not affectionately called the ‘Hell of the North’ without good reason. A 258km route through northern France contains 27 sections of bone-jarring cobbled roads which provide the perfect platform for bold attacks, race-killing punctures and high drama. It is a gruelling, punishing race – others are longer, but none is tougher. Boonen is a three-time winner here, while Cancellara has won twice. Last year Cancellara was marked out of contention by his main rivals – he still finished second – as Garmin-Cervelo’s Johan Vansummeren escaped alone up the road to score a breakthrough win. Expect similar drama this year.

4. F1 Chinese GP (15th)

The third race of the 2012 Formula 1 season takes the grid to Shanghai for the ninth running of the Chinese Grand Prix. After Jenson Button’s season-opening win in Australia, Fernando Alonso took his Ferrari – which this year is more of a dog than a prancing horse – to victory in a rain-affected Malaysian GP. The Spaniard leads the standings with 35 points, five ahead of Lewis Hamilton and ten ahaed of Button, with reigning double world champion Sebastian Vettel languishing in sixth as he struggles to get the maximum out of his new Red Bull.

Hamilton won last year’s race to become the first two-time winner in China, but previous race winners include Button, Vettel, Alonso, Michael Schumacher and Kimi Raikkonen, all of whom will line up on the grid again this year.

5. Champions League semi-finals (17th-25th)

Chelsea are the Premier League’s sole representative in the quarter-finals, whose second legs take place on the 3rd and 4th, and look well placed to progress after their 1-0 away win at Benfica last week. However, most people ‘s attention will be on Barcelona ahead of the semi-finals, which will be played on consecutive mid-weeks later in the month.

With Real Madrid already 3-0 up from the away leg of their tie with Apoel Nicosia and Bayern Munich taking a 2-0 away victory into their second leg against Marseille, it is the defending champions whose status remains in the most doubt. A 0-0 draw away at AC Milan was not a bad result, but nonetheless they have minimal margin for error if they want to keep hopes of an all-La Liga final alive. As an aside, all four seeded teams kept clean sheets in the away legs of their quarter-finals, a remarkable achievement.

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My sporting month: September 2011

September 1, 2011 2 Comments

Ah, September. The end of summer. The beginning of autumn. The conclusion of the last major events of the year in tennis (the US Open) and cycling (the Vuelta a España). The start of the quadrennial highlight in one leading sport. The resumption of hostilities in the qualifying campaign of another. Events all over the world ranging from one of the northernmost countries in Europe to one of the most eastern nations in Asia. And a first encounter between the most successful and longest-serving manager in English football’s top division and a newcomer less than half his age. It should be quite a month. Here’s what I’ll be watching this month.

1. Euro 2012 qualifiers – Bulgaria vs England (2nd), England vs Wales (6th)

England‘s qualifying campaign for next summer’s European Championships resumes with a double-header against the bottom two teams in group F, with victory in both games essential if they are to stay ahead of Montenegro in the race for the one automatic qualification spot.

A day before the anniversary of a 4-0 drubbing at Wembley courtesy of a Jermain Defoe hat-trick, Fabio Capello‘s men will travel to Sofia without key midfielders Steven Gerrard and Jack Wilshere in search of a repeat win over Bulgaria. Four days later they will host Wales, who have lost all four of their matches to date, including a 2-0 defeat to England in March which was more one-sided than the scoreline suggests.

2. Rugby World Cup (starts 9th)

Over the course of six weeks, 20 teams will battle it out in New Zealand for the right to succeed South Africa as rugby union’s world champions. In 2007 the Springboks ground down defending champions England 15-6 in a dour game, while the tournament’s surprise package Argentina repeated their opening night upset of hosts France with a 34-10 victory in the bronze medal match.

The balance of power in world rugby currently resides firmly with the southern hemisphere sides, with New Zealand hopeful of taking full advantage of their position as hosts to win their first World Cup since they co-hosted the inaugural tournament in 1987. Australia will look to carry forward the form which saw them win the Tri-Nations last weekend to claim their third World Cup, with South Africa also seeking to become the first country to take a hat-trick of victories. It will be a major surprise if England, France or any of the northern hemisphere countries come out on top.

The group phase occupies the whole of the first month, with the final taking place in Auckland’s Eden Park on October 23rd.

3. Manchester United vs Chelsea (18th)

This is more than just a clash between two of the Premier League’s heavyweight teams. Coming just three weeks after Manchester United thrashed Arsenal 8-2 in a battle between the division’s two longest-serving managers, this game is a tussle between the old guard, 69-year old Sir Alex Ferguson, and the new generation as represented by new Chelsea boss André Villas-Boas, who at 33 years old is the youngest manager in the Premier League.

It is too early in the fixture list to call this a season-defining match, but it will certainly lay down a marker for the rest of the campaign. Will the wily old fox – whose team this season has received a fresh injection of youth in the shape of Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley – have too much for the latest pretender to the throne, several of whose players are barely younger than he is?

Cancellara will defend his time trial world title

4. Cycling road world championships (19th-25th)

Copenhagen plays host to the cycling’s road world championships for the fifth time in its history (but the first since 1956) on a relatively flat course which offers major opportunities for British glory. In the men’s events, Thor Hushovd (road race) and Fabian Cancellara (time trial) will defend their rainbow jerseys with Mark Cavendish, supported by a full-strength British team, a major favourite for the former.

In the women’s races Britain’s Emma Pooley (time trial) and Italy’s Girogia Bronzini (road race) are the defending champions. Lizzie Armitstead and former world and Olympic champion Nicole Cooke will be Britain’s main hopes in the road race – the pair finished ninth and fourth respectively in Melbourne last year.

5. Singapore Grand Prix (25th)

The battle for the Formula 1 drivers’ championship may be all but mathematically over – Sebastian Vettel‘s seventh win of the season in Belgium moved him 92 points clear with a maximum of just 175 still available – but that will not diminish the spectacle of Singapore’s night race, the first of five consecutive grands prix following the end of the final European race in Italy a fortnight before.

In last year’s race Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso just managed to hold off eventual world champion Vettel by less than three-tenths of a second to claim the hat-trick of pole position, fastest lap and race win. It was a victory significantly less controversial than his previous one for Renault in the race’s maiden outing in 2008, when he took first place after teammate Nelson Piquet Jr was ordered to crash by the team to force a safety car period. That provided the platform for Alonso to charge through the field from 15th on the grid. McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton is the only other driver to have won in Singapore.

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Vuelta a España preview

August 19, 2011 9 Comments

The 66th edition of the Vuelta a España, the last of cycling’s three Grand Tours, gets under way in Benidorm on Saturday and concludes three weeks later with its traditional finish in the centre of Madrid. Defending champion Vincenzo Nibali returns in search of a second Vuelta victory against a field packed full of big names, including two-time winner Denis Menchov.

The route

Like last year, this year’s route is designed with climbers in mind, with six summit finishes and a number of other difficult ascents. It is also designed to throw challenges at the riders right from the start, with the first high summit finish coming as early as the fourth day and several other late climbs scattered throughout the first week ready to catch the unprepared.

Unusually the race does not venture into either the Pyrenees or Catalunya this year, although it does make a return to the Basque country after a 33-year absence. In total, the race features ten mountain stages – including six summit finishes – and nine flat stages, with just two time trials (one team, one individual) which bookend a punishing ten-day opening stint which will most likely see the effective elimination of several contenders before the first rest day.

This race starts with a short 16km team time trial around Benidorm, and is then followed by ‘flat’ stages on five of the next six days. However, only stages two and seven are traditional sprinters’ days. Stages three and six each feature categorised climbs in the final 20km which will make life difficult for pure speedsters such as Mark Cavendish, while stage five finishes on the uncategorised but murderous ascent of Valdepeñas de Jaén, where long-time overall leader Igor Antón won last year.

Stage four sees the first – and highest – of the six summit finishes, at the Sierra Nevada ski resort in Andalucia, with the line at 2,112 metres. This climb was last visited in 2008, where David Moncoutié won en route to his first of three consecutive King of the Mountains titles. Coming so early in the race, one or more of the general classification contenders could easily lose big chunks of time here.

Stage 4 profile

After the sprinters have had their day, the race takes a distinctly uphill turn. A rolling eighth stage ends with a short, sharp shock at the finish in San Lorenzo, where the punishing final climb features ramps of up to 28% in gradient. Stage nine is a more traditional high mountain stage, with a flat run to the 1,970-metre high Sierra de Bejar. A tricky individual time trial on an up-then-down 47km course in Salamanca will provide a stern challenge for tired legs before the peloton is afforded a pause for breath at the end of ten gruelling days.

After the long opening stint, the middle ‘week’ of the race is just five days long, but includes a decisive sequence of four mountain stages and three summit finishes. Stage 11 takes the race back to Galicia for the first time since 2007 and concludes with the 30-kilometre climb of La Manzaneda, which is new to the Vuelta. After an ordinary transition day – the sprinters’ only opportunity between stages seven and 16 – the riders will spend one final day in Galicia which features two first-category climbs but a benign 50-kilometre run to the finish in Ponferrada.

The next two days, however, will most likely mould the final general classification into shape. Stages 14 and 15 will be painful for everyone, with each featuring a second and first-category climb before hors catégorie summit finishes at Lagos di Somiedo (a Vuelta debutant) and Anglirú. The latter is a beast of a climb – regarded by many as the toughest in Spain – which features a savage section between six and 12km averaging 13.8% (kilometre 11 alone is an eye-watering 17.5%). It is more than a match for anything the Giro or Tour have to offer, and with the second rest day following immediately after it is likely to prove to be the key battleground on which the race is won and lost.

Stage 15 profile

The closing stretch, while hardly straightforward, lacks an obvious headline-grabbing profile. Stage 17 finishes with the HC climb of Peña Cabarga, on the approach to which Antón crashed out of the race lead last year, while stage 19 sees the Vuelta return to the Basque region after a 33-year absence with a stage finish in Bilbao. The penultimate stage includes two first-category climbs, but these will be negated by a flat run-in of nearly 50 kilometres. And the final stage, of course, is the usual processional affair with the sprinters taking centre stage as the peloton completes several circuits of Madrid city centre.

The men to watch

Nibali returns to defend last year's win

This year’s Vuelta can boast arguably its strongest line-up in several years, with the ranks of GC contenders swelled by several top riders who were forced out of the Tour de France early on.

2010 champion Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) is back to defend his title, and will face a strong Spanish contingent led by Igor Antón (Euskaltel-Euskadi), who crashed while leading last year’s race on stage 14, and Joaquim Rodríguez (Katusha). Antón had raced sparingly this year but won on the Zoncolan at the Giro, while Rodríguez finished fifth in Italy and took strong second places at Amstel Gold and Flèche Wallonne behind Philippe Gilbert, who has been unbeatable in the hilly classics this year.

Denis Menchov opted for the Giro-Vuelta combination when his Geox-TMC team did not receive an invite to the Tour. The 2005 and 2007 champion has raced a light programme this year, but finished a useful (if somewhat anonymous) eighth at the Giro. Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) was second behind Alberto Contador at the Giro and has been in good form all season, but has yet to finish in the top ten in Spain.

All of the above had always intended to ride the Vuelta, but the list of genuine contenders is swelled by the presence of Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto), Bradley Wiggins (Sky) and the RadioShack pair of Janez Brajkovič and Andreas Klöden. All started the Tour in excellent form, but none finished it after a succession of crashes. Their current condition is uncertain, but each is capable of challenging for a podium position.

Will we see more of this from Cav over the next three weeks? (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

Despite the distinctly hilly finishes to a number of the flat stages, the world’s best sprinters are also well represented here. In their farewell Grand Tour before the team’s dissolution, HTC-Highroad will feature a three-pronged sprint attack. Mark Cavendish will look to add to his two Giro and five individual Tour stages in defending his 2010 points classification victory. Matt Goss – winner of Milan-San Remo – will come to the fore on the hillier finishes. And 22-year old John Degenkolb, twice a winner at this year’s Dauphiné, will be an effective plan B should either of his more senior teammates falter. The team will also be favoured to repeat last year’s victory in the team time trial, which could put Cavendish in the overall leader’s red jersey for the first two or three days.

Cavendish will face plenty of competition though. The Garmin-Cervélo squad of Tyler Farrar won the Tour’s team time trial and the American (a three-time winner at the Vuelta) also took his first individual stage in France this year. J J Haedo has run Cavendish close in the past and will be free of the need to support absent Saxo Bank-Sungard leader Contador. Marcel Kittel (Skil-Shimano) won all four bunch sprints at the recent Tour of Poland. And the powerful Peter Sagan (Liquigas) is also a notable threat, although he is more of a direct rival for Goss on the lumpy finishes which require strength as well as speed. Similarly, the strength and experience of Óscar Freire should not be underestimated.

Cancellara will be the hot favourite for the stage 10 ITT

In the mountains classification, David Moncoutié (Cofidis) returns to target a fourth consecutive win but will face stiff competition from the GC contenders and any of a dozen or more Spanish climbers. Fabian Cancellara will be expected to top the time sheets in the individual time trial, although his arrival in Spain has been delayed after he was hospitalised by a bee sting.

Antón is the bookies’ favourite (ahead of Nibali) to make up for last year’s disappointment and claim his maiden Grand Tour win. Although I think any of the top five or six contenders could win a closely-contested race I find it hard to disagree with the odds-makers, not least when you look at the strength of the Euskaltel team, which is packed full of top climbing talent.

The sprinters’ and mountains classification are even more open. Cavendish may well win the most stages, but given the lumpy nature of many of the stages he may struggle to match the consistency of strong men such as Sagan. Will Moncoutié make it four in a row? At 36, this may prove to be a year too far, although his legs should be fresh having ridden a relatively light programme in 2011 including a fairly minimalist effort at the Tour, which he appeared to use more as a tune-up for this race.

So there you have it. A mouth-watering line-up of talent and a course which will remorselessly seek out any weakness in the riders. The Vuelta may be the youngest and the least prestigious of the three Grand Tours, but it is a thrilling race which never fails to deliver incredible drama. Miss it at your peril.

The 2011 Vuelta a España begins in Benidorm on Saturday and concludes in Madrid on Sunday 11th September. I will be writing occasional posts reviewing key stages and relevant topics during the race.

Video walk-through

Link: Vuelta a España official website

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Tour de France preview: Six key stages

July 1, 2011 34 Comments

Continuing my preview of the Tour de France, here are my thoughts on the six stages which are likely to generate the greatest degree of excitement, with the Mûr-de-Bretagne and the individual time trial book-ending the four key mountain-top finishes. Other stages will also materially affect the overall standings, but if you are only going to watch six stages these are the ones to go for.

Stage 4: Lorient to Mûr-de-Bretagne, 172.5km

Categorised climbs:

  • Km 79: Côte de Laz (237m) – 1.6km, 5.9 % average, Category 4
  • Km 172.5: Mûr-de-Bretagne (293m) – 2.0km, 6.9 % average, Category 3

There are only two categorised climbs, but there is barely a flat section worth the name all day, and in addition to the usual day-long breakaway a nervy peloton can expect to have to deal with a number of speculative attacks on the run-in to the final climb of the Mûr-de-Bretagne – known as the ’Breton Alpe d’Huez’. This is a sharp 2km ascent with constantly varying gradients which will require the winner to exercise patience and a keen sense of timing. Attack too soon and you will run out of steam before the finish; leave it too late and you risk being swamped by the charging pack.

It is a finish straight out of the Ardennes classics handbook, which makes it squarely Philippe Gilbert territory. Expect Omega Pharma-Lotto teammate Jurgen van den Broeck to lead the way, and for everybody else to follow Gilbert’s wheel. Whether they are able to live with his inevitable attack is another matter entirely. Coincidentally, it is also the Belgian’s 29th birthday – and his present for winning might just be the yellow jersey.

Stage 12: Cugnaux to Luz-Ardiden, 211km

Categorised climbs:

  • Km 141.5: Hourquette d’Ancizan (1,538m) – 9.9km, 7.5 % average, Category 1
  • Km 175.5: Col du Tourmalet (2,115m) – 17.1km, 7.3 % average, Category HC
  • Km 211: Luz-Ardiden (1,715m) – 13.3km, 7.4 % average, Category HC

Nearly two weeks into the race, we enter the high mountains of the Pyrenees for the first of this year’s four summit finishes which will shape the general classification. The first-category Hourquette d’Ancizan is an off-shoot of the more familiar Col d’Aspin, leading straight into the Tourmalet – the final hors catégorie climb of 2010 and the first of 2011 – scene of Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck’s climactic tête-à-tête last year. The descent from the Tourmalet takes the riders straight to the final climb of Luz-Ardiden, which will see the first true selection of the GC contenders. It has not been used at the Tour since 2003, when Lance Armstrong was famously felled by the handles of a spectator’s bag and got up to win the stage, changing the momentum of a race which seemed to be swinging Jan Ullrich’s way.

It is also Bastille Day, so expect a wave of breakaway attempts from French riders, all hoping that the big guns will be too busy watching each other to mount a serious pursuit. This could be a day for the likes of David Moncoutié or John Gadret to claim a famous victory on a day which is difficult but not the most savage this year’s race has to offer.

Stage 14: Saint-Gaudens to Plateau de Beille, 168.5km

Categorised climbs:

  • Km 26.5: Col de Portet-d’Aspet (1,069m) – 4.3km, 9.7 % average, Category 2
  • Km 62.5: Col de la Core (1,395m) – 14.1km, 5.7 % average, Category 1
  • Km 94: Col de Latrape (1,110m) – 5.6km, 7.2 % average, Category 2
  • Km 109: Col d’Agnes (1,570m) – 10.0km, 8.2 % average, Category 1
  • Km 118: Port de Lers (1,517m) – 3.8km, 5.5 % average, Category 3
  • Km 168.5: Plateau de Beille (1,780m) – 15.8km, 7.9 % average, Category HC

The last day in the Pyrenees carries a significant historic significance: the summit of Plateau de Beille has hosted a stage finish four times before, and on each occasion the winner – Marco Pantani in 1998, Armstrong in 2002 and 2004, Contador in 2007 – has gone on to claim the Tour. There is little respite from start to finish, with the road heading straight to the slopes of the Portet-d’Aspet, site of Fabio Casartelli’s fatal crash in 1995. A breakaway will undoubtedly escape here on the first climb, but expect a constant concertina effect of counter-attacks and chases all the way over the five back-to-back mountains which lead to the final climb. By the end of this stage, the number of genuine yellow jersey contenders will most likely number no more than three.

Stage 18: Pinerolo to Galibier-Serre Chevalier, 200.5km

Categorised climbs:

  • Km 107: Col Agnel (2,744m) – 23.7km, 6.5 % average, Category HC
  • Km 145.5: Col d’Izoard (2,360m) – 14.1km, 7.3 % average, Category HC
  • Km 200.5: Col du Galibier (2,645m) – 22.8km, 4.9 % average, Category HC

After three transition stages – one flat and two mountainous stages of only moderate difficulty – the peloton tackles an Alpine double-header of the utmost difficulty. The first instalment of this two-parter sees the race take on three hors catégorie summits of over 2,300 metres. First the riders must negotiate the highest point of this year’s race – the Col Agnel at 2,744m – as a prelude to the Izoard (the shortest but steepest of the day’s three climbs) and then the highest summit finish of any of the Tour’s 98 editions, a previously unused road to the finish atop the Galibier.

This final climb is actually two-in-one – the relatively gentle Col du Lautaret leads into the final 8.5km ascent of the Galibier, which averages 6.9% but exceeds 12% at the summit. The most damaging attacks will probably not occur until the final couple of kilometres, but could result in some large time gaps as riders crack under the pressure and accumulated fatigue of a long day of climbing. This is a day for the true contenders to make their mark.

Stage 19: Modane Valfréjus to Alpe-d’Huez, 109.5km

Categorised climbs:

  • Km 26.5: Col du Télégraphe (1,566m) – 11.9km climb to 7.1 %, Category 1
  • Km 48.5: Col du Galibier (2,556m) – 16.7km climb to 6.8 %, Category HC
  • Km 109.5: Alpe d’Huez (1,850m) – 13.8km climb to 7.9 %, Category HC

Nearly 100km shorter than the previous day’s stage, but no less challenging. This one will be all action from the word go, with a fast and furious descent pitching the peloton straight into a second ascent of the Galibier, this time from the marginally less steep north side via the Col du Télégraphe. A helter-skelter descent will then ensue as the favourites set off in pursuit of the inevitable breakaway before tackling the iconic 21 hairpins of Alpe d’Huez.

Many famous names have won here – Armstrong, Hinault, Coppi, Pantani – and many other, equally legendary names have not, such as Merckx, Anquetil, Indurain and Contador. Of this year’s starters only Fränk Schleck (in 2006) has won a stage at the Alpe. The Tour may well be won and lost here.

Stage 20: Grenoble, 42.5km individual time trial

This is the same course used for the individual time trial at the Dauphiné at the start of June. On a partially wet day, Tony Martin edged out Bradley Wiggins to take the win – and the German is likely to be the biggest threat to Fabian Cancellara here. The parcours here requires a little bit of everything: power, climbing ability, and a combination of descending skills and bike handling on the return run down to Grenoble, which features a series of difficult, tight corners at the start of the descent.

Large chunks of time can be won or lost on this stage. Although exacerbated by the wet conditions, two minutes separated first from tenth on this course at the Dauphiné, with several contenders losing closer to four minutes. If the yellow jersey is leading by a minute or less, it will make for a day of high tension – particularly if there is any rain – and we may well see some significant changes in the top ten. The overall leader at the end of the day will be crowned champion in Paris the following afternoon.

Tomorrow, I will conclude my preview with a closer look at Saturday’s opening stage. For an overview of all 21 stages, have a look at the official ‘fly-over’ video preview below:


Tour de France preview

The Tour in numbers

Teams and sponsors (part 1)

Teams and sponsors (part 2)

Official Tour teaser video

Ten riders to watch

Stage 1 preview

Links: Tour de France official website, Steephill.tv

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Tour de France preview: Ten riders to watch

June 30, 2011 41 Comments

The countdown continues, with the start of the 98th edition of the Tour de France now just 48 hours away.

Having already reviewed the prospects of all 22 teams, here is a personal list of ten riders to watch out for who are each likely to animate the race at various points. I have also added a further ten ‘honourable mentions’ who have the potential for a high finish or dramatic stage wins.

Ten to watch

Fabian Cancellara (Leopard-Trek)

Objective: Individual time trial (stage 20). A stage win in the first week which could put him in the yellow jersey.

‘Spartacus’ is a possible stage winner and yellow jersey in the classics-style finishes of the first week, and will certainly start as favourite for the individual time trial, a discipline in which he is the reigning world and Olympic champion. He will feature regularly at the front of the Leopard-Trek train in the foothills of the mountains as they look to isolate Alberto Contador from his teammates and set up Andy Schleck. 2011 has been a mediocre season so far by Cancellara’s high standards, winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen but managing ‘only’ second at Paris-Roubaix and third at the Tour of Flanders. (Last year he won all three.) Nonetheless, he has recorded time trial victories at Tirreno-Adriatico, the Tour of Luxembourg and two at the recent Tour de Suisse, where he won the concluding hilly time trial on a course not dissimilar to the Grenoble parcours at the Tour.

Image courtesy of TDWSport.com

Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad)

Objective: Sprint wins and the green jersey.

It has been a quiet 2011 by the standards of the fastest sprinter on two wheels, with just four wins entering the Tour – although two came at the Giro d’Italia in May. Sometimes a slow starter, Cavendish has nonetheless amassed 15 wins at the last three Tours (including five last year) and will also be targeting the green jersey this year. When on form and presented with a flat finish, he is nigh on unbeatable. However, rival teams will adjust their tactics to try to eliminate him on the lumpier stages of the first week. But while he is not as strong a climber as, say, Thor Hushovd, he is capable of winning hilly races in the right circumstances, as he proved at Milan San-Remo in 2009.

Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Sungard)

Objective: The yellow jersey.

Contador starts under the shadow of an ongoing doping appeal which could yet see him stripped of his 2010 Tour win and 2011 results. However, the Spaniard remains the consummate stage-race champion, having won the last six Grand Tours he has entered, including the 2007, 2009 and 2010 Tours de France and May’s Giro d’Italia, in which he won two stages and gifted two others. His form this season has been impeccable, including overall wins in the Vuelta a Murcia and Volta a Catalunya. The only question mark over him – in physical terms, at least – will be whether he has regained peak form having sat out the last few weeks to recover from one of the most gruelling Giros in memory. If he has, expect him to go on the attack as soon as the race hits the high mountains on stage 12 to Luz-Ardiden. But don’t expect to see much of him before then.

Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Objective: Stage wins on days with uphill finishes in the first week, which could enable him to enjoy a spell in the yellow jersey.

The newly crowned Belgian champion and the undisputed king of the spring Ardennes classics – he won Amstel Gold, Flèche-Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège in the space of eight days – will thrive on the uphill finishes scattered throughout the opening week. In particular, look for him on stages four and six. The former (which takes place on his 29th birthday) finishes on the third-category Mûr-de-Bretagne and is tailor-made for one of his trademark late attacks.

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Objective: A podium finish, to be achieved via strong rides in the high mountains.

Rabobank’s team leader is one of the strongest individual climbers in the peloton, and is supported by a squad packed with mountain specialists. Bauke Mollema and Laurens ten Dam were fifth and eighth at the Tour de Suisse, Luis León Sánchez was 11th at the Tour and tenth at the Vuelta last year and Juan Manuel Gárate has three top ten finishes at the Giro to his name. Gesink is a decent time-trialist, and so far this year has won the Tour of Oman and added podium finishes in strong fields at Tirreno-Adriatico (second) and the Tour of the Basque Country (third). He finished sixth overall at last year’s Tour, and can be expected to ride aggressively in pursuit of a podium finish here. Look out for him as the final man in wave after wave of orange-clad Rabobank attacks in the mountains.

Image courtesy of highroadsports.com

Tony Martin (HTC-Highroad)

Objective: Earn and then defend the yellow jersey during the first week, probably via the team time trial (stage two). Individual time trial. Top 20 finish on general classification.

The time trial may be his speciality – in which he is second only to Fabian Cancellara – but Martin is a good all-round rider who has the potential to finish in the top 20 overall (his best finish to date was 36th in 2009). That aspiration may be compromised by his role as a key member of Mark Cavendish’s lead-out train, but if HTC-Highroad win the stage two team time trial he is likely to claim the yellow jersey. At the very least he will expect to challenge Cancellara in the stage 20 time trial. He has already won the time trial at the Critérium du Dauphiné over exactly the same course earlier this month, which may give him an extra advantage.

Thor Hushovd (Garmin-Cervélo)

Objective: Wins, particularly on the lumpier flat stages. Green jersey.

The reigning road race world champion is no match for Mark Cavendish in terms of outright speed but is a superior climber, which will favour him on a number of flat stages with tricky uphill finishes. On just such a finish at the Tour de Suisse a fortnight ago, he earned a confidence-boosting first win of the season. His climbing ability means he will also gain points over Cavendish and many of the other top sprinters at intermediate sprints on mountain stages. Even if he does not win any stages, he may potentially have the upper hand in the green jersey competition.

Andy Schleck (Leopard-Trek)

Objective: The yellow jersey.

The runner-up to Contador in each of the last two years, the younger Schleck has had a relatively quiet preparation for the Tour, placing a strong third at Liège-Bastogne-Liège before testing himself at the Tour of California (where he finished eighth) and the recent Tour de Suisse, where he had two very impressive days in the mountains interspersed with other mediocre efforts, which appeared to contain an element of sand-bagging. Although he performed well in the time trial at last year’s Tour it remains a weakness, so Schleck will be hoping to pull out an advantage in the mountains ahead of the penultimate day’s race against the clock. A less explosive but no less effective climber than Contador, the long, gradual climbs of the Alps will probably be better suited to his attacking style. Like Contador, he will hide in the anonymity of the peloton for the first half of the race, before launching targeted attacks in the mountains aided by brother Fränk.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Objective: A podium finish, to be achieved via strong rides in the high mountains.

Fifth overall last year after stepping out of the shadow of the departed Cadel Evans, the Belgian climber is one of a handful of riders capable of putting in the kind of accelerations required to put his rivals under pressure in the high mountains. He was fourth at the Dauphiné and took a fine solo win with an impressive uphill attack. More of the same will be required if he is to achieve a podium finish this year, as he is not as strong a time-trialist as many of his immediate rivals.

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

Objective: A stage win, either via a late attack on one of week one’s classics-style stages, or as part of a long breakaway in the mountains.

Although not a contender for a high finish in the general classification, the much-loved Voeckler has considerable Tour pedigree, having honoured the yellow jersey for ten days in 2004 and twice winning a stage via breakaways. The lumpy nature of the first week will suit his punchy attacking style, but he is also a good enough climber to profit from a break on the tougher mountain stages too. He probably won’t succeed, but it will be glorious to watch one of the most spectacular and likeable men in the peloton regardless.

Ten honourable mentions

Cadel Evans

Of the other key general classification contenders, Cadel Evans (BMC) has shown the most consistent form this year, taking an impressive stage win and the overall at Tirreno-Adriatico, winning the Tour of Romandie and finishing second at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Runner-up at the Tour in 2007 and 2008, he is a strong time-trialist and climber who lacks the acceleration to live with the very best in the mountains, but is a good each-way bet for a podium finish.

The Dauphiné also saw the prospects of two other top riders heading in very different directions. Bradley Wiggins‘s (Sky) preparation has been low-key, but he followed up a useful third place at Paris-Nice by winning the Dauphiné. Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale) won the GP di Lugano and was fourth at Tirreno-Adriatico, but suffered an injury in a training accident in May and was poor in the mountains at the Dauphiné. The Italian has the stronger pedigree and is the superior climber when in form, whereas Wiggins lacks acceleration and will ride defensively in the mountains, hoping to stay in touch with the leaders and make up the gap in the time trial.

Fränk Schleck (Leopard-Trek) will provide half of a one-two punch in the mountains which his brother Andy hopes will expose Contador. Although his primary role will be to support Andy, he is a top rider in his own right, boasting two previous top five finishes and prestigious mountain stage wins at Alpe d’Huez (the last mountain finish this year) and Le Grand-Bornand.

RadioShack have a trio of ageing musketeers - Chris Horner (39), Levi Leipheimer (37) and Andreas Klöden (36) – who each have overall stage race wins to their names this season (the Tour of California, Tour de Suisse and Tour of the Basque Country respectively). They will be joined in a four-pronged attack by Janez Brajkovič, the winner of last year’s Critérium du Dauphiné, but the Slovenian is more likely to be pushed into a support role here.

Damiano Cunego

Lampre’s Damiano Cunego, a Giro winner in 2004, skipped his home race this year to focus on the Tour. He is a strong climber whose Achilles’ heel is time-trialling, as he demonstrated at the Tour de Suisse. He is certainly capable of improving on his previous best Tour finish of 11th (in 2006), but may struggle to challenge for the podium positions.

Reigning Olympic road race champion Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) finished fourth last year and will look for better this time round. He will most likely target the Pyrenean stages where his team will receive the raucous support of hundreds of thousands of Basque fans.

Finally, in what may well be his last Tour, Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) will undoubtedly seek one last stage win with a kamikaze solo attack, either in the first week or possibly on one of the mountain stages which does not conclude with a summit finish.

Tour de France preview

The Tour in numbers

Teams and sponsors (part 1)

Teams and sponsors (part 2)

Official Tour teaser video

Six key stages

Stage 1 preview

Links: Tour de France official website, Steephill.tv

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