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Tour de France preview: Ten riders to watch

June 30, 2011 41 Comments

The countdown continues, with the start of the 98th edition of the Tour de France now just 48 hours away.

Having already reviewed the prospects of all 22 teams, here is a personal list of ten riders to watch out for who are each likely to animate the race at various points. I have also added a further ten ‘honourable mentions’ who have the potential for a high finish or dramatic stage wins.

Ten to watch

Fabian Cancellara (Leopard-Trek)

Objective: Individual time trial (stage 20). A stage win in the first week which could put him in the yellow jersey.

‘Spartacus’ is a possible stage winner and yellow jersey in the classics-style finishes of the first week, and will certainly start as favourite for the individual time trial, a discipline in which he is the reigning world and Olympic champion. He will feature regularly at the front of the Leopard-Trek train in the foothills of the mountains as they look to isolate Alberto Contador from his teammates and set up Andy Schleck. 2011 has been a mediocre season so far by Cancellara’s high standards, winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen but managing ‘only’ second at Paris-Roubaix and third at the Tour of Flanders. (Last year he won all three.) Nonetheless, he has recorded time trial victories at Tirreno-Adriatico, the Tour of Luxembourg and two at the recent Tour de Suisse, where he won the concluding hilly time trial on a course not dissimilar to the Grenoble parcours at the Tour.

Image courtesy of TDWSport.com

Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad)

Objective: Sprint wins and the green jersey.

It has been a quiet 2011 by the standards of the fastest sprinter on two wheels, with just four wins entering the Tour – although two came at the Giro d’Italia in May. Sometimes a slow starter, Cavendish has nonetheless amassed 15 wins at the last three Tours (including five last year) and will also be targeting the green jersey this year. When on form and presented with a flat finish, he is nigh on unbeatable. However, rival teams will adjust their tactics to try to eliminate him on the lumpier stages of the first week. But while he is not as strong a climber as, say, Thor Hushovd, he is capable of winning hilly races in the right circumstances, as he proved at Milan San-Remo in 2009.

Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Sungard)

Objective: The yellow jersey.

Contador starts under the shadow of an ongoing doping appeal which could yet see him stripped of his 2010 Tour win and 2011 results. However, the Spaniard remains the consummate stage-race champion, having won the last six Grand Tours he has entered, including the 2007, 2009 and 2010 Tours de France and May’s Giro d’Italia, in which he won two stages and gifted two others. His form this season has been impeccable, including overall wins in the Vuelta a Murcia and Volta a Catalunya. The only question mark over him – in physical terms, at least – will be whether he has regained peak form having sat out the last few weeks to recover from one of the most gruelling Giros in memory. If he has, expect him to go on the attack as soon as the race hits the high mountains on stage 12 to Luz-Ardiden. But don’t expect to see much of him before then.

Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Objective: Stage wins on days with uphill finishes in the first week, which could enable him to enjoy a spell in the yellow jersey.

The newly crowned Belgian champion and the undisputed king of the spring Ardennes classics – he won Amstel Gold, Flèche-Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège in the space of eight days – will thrive on the uphill finishes scattered throughout the opening week. In particular, look for him on stages four and six. The former (which takes place on his 29th birthday) finishes on the third-category Mûr-de-Bretagne and is tailor-made for one of his trademark late attacks.

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Objective: A podium finish, to be achieved via strong rides in the high mountains.

Rabobank’s team leader is one of the strongest individual climbers in the peloton, and is supported by a squad packed with mountain specialists. Bauke Mollema and Laurens ten Dam were fifth and eighth at the Tour de Suisse, Luis León Sánchez was 11th at the Tour and tenth at the Vuelta last year and Juan Manuel Gárate has three top ten finishes at the Giro to his name. Gesink is a decent time-trialist, and so far this year has won the Tour of Oman and added podium finishes in strong fields at Tirreno-Adriatico (second) and the Tour of the Basque Country (third). He finished sixth overall at last year’s Tour, and can be expected to ride aggressively in pursuit of a podium finish here. Look out for him as the final man in wave after wave of orange-clad Rabobank attacks in the mountains.

Image courtesy of highroadsports.com

Tony Martin (HTC-Highroad)

Objective: Earn and then defend the yellow jersey during the first week, probably via the team time trial (stage two). Individual time trial. Top 20 finish on general classification.

The time trial may be his speciality – in which he is second only to Fabian Cancellara – but Martin is a good all-round rider who has the potential to finish in the top 20 overall (his best finish to date was 36th in 2009). That aspiration may be compromised by his role as a key member of Mark Cavendish’s lead-out train, but if HTC-Highroad win the stage two team time trial he is likely to claim the yellow jersey. At the very least he will expect to challenge Cancellara in the stage 20 time trial. He has already won the time trial at the Critérium du Dauphiné over exactly the same course earlier this month, which may give him an extra advantage.

Thor Hushovd (Garmin-Cervélo)

Objective: Wins, particularly on the lumpier flat stages. Green jersey.

The reigning road race world champion is no match for Mark Cavendish in terms of outright speed but is a superior climber, which will favour him on a number of flat stages with tricky uphill finishes. On just such a finish at the Tour de Suisse a fortnight ago, he earned a confidence-boosting first win of the season. His climbing ability means he will also gain points over Cavendish and many of the other top sprinters at intermediate sprints on mountain stages. Even if he does not win any stages, he may potentially have the upper hand in the green jersey competition.

Andy Schleck (Leopard-Trek)

Objective: The yellow jersey.

The runner-up to Contador in each of the last two years, the younger Schleck has had a relatively quiet preparation for the Tour, placing a strong third at Liège-Bastogne-Liège before testing himself at the Tour of California (where he finished eighth) and the recent Tour de Suisse, where he had two very impressive days in the mountains interspersed with other mediocre efforts, which appeared to contain an element of sand-bagging. Although he performed well in the time trial at last year’s Tour it remains a weakness, so Schleck will be hoping to pull out an advantage in the mountains ahead of the penultimate day’s race against the clock. A less explosive but no less effective climber than Contador, the long, gradual climbs of the Alps will probably be better suited to his attacking style. Like Contador, he will hide in the anonymity of the peloton for the first half of the race, before launching targeted attacks in the mountains aided by brother Fränk.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Objective: A podium finish, to be achieved via strong rides in the high mountains.

Fifth overall last year after stepping out of the shadow of the departed Cadel Evans, the Belgian climber is one of a handful of riders capable of putting in the kind of accelerations required to put his rivals under pressure in the high mountains. He was fourth at the Dauphiné and took a fine solo win with an impressive uphill attack. More of the same will be required if he is to achieve a podium finish this year, as he is not as strong a time-trialist as many of his immediate rivals.

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

Objective: A stage win, either via a late attack on one of week one’s classics-style stages, or as part of a long breakaway in the mountains.

Although not a contender for a high finish in the general classification, the much-loved Voeckler has considerable Tour pedigree, having honoured the yellow jersey for ten days in 2004 and twice winning a stage via breakaways. The lumpy nature of the first week will suit his punchy attacking style, but he is also a good enough climber to profit from a break on the tougher mountain stages too. He probably won’t succeed, but it will be glorious to watch one of the most spectacular and likeable men in the peloton regardless.

Ten honourable mentions

Cadel Evans

Of the other key general classification contenders, Cadel Evans (BMC) has shown the most consistent form this year, taking an impressive stage win and the overall at Tirreno-Adriatico, winning the Tour of Romandie and finishing second at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Runner-up at the Tour in 2007 and 2008, he is a strong time-trialist and climber who lacks the acceleration to live with the very best in the mountains, but is a good each-way bet for a podium finish.

The Dauphiné also saw the prospects of two other top riders heading in very different directions. Bradley Wiggins‘s (Sky) preparation has been low-key, but he followed up a useful third place at Paris-Nice by winning the Dauphiné. Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale) won the GP di Lugano and was fourth at Tirreno-Adriatico, but suffered an injury in a training accident in May and was poor in the mountains at the Dauphiné. The Italian has the stronger pedigree and is the superior climber when in form, whereas Wiggins lacks acceleration and will ride defensively in the mountains, hoping to stay in touch with the leaders and make up the gap in the time trial.

Fränk Schleck (Leopard-Trek) will provide half of a one-two punch in the mountains which his brother Andy hopes will expose Contador. Although his primary role will be to support Andy, he is a top rider in his own right, boasting two previous top five finishes and prestigious mountain stage wins at Alpe d’Huez (the last mountain finish this year) and Le Grand-Bornand.

RadioShack have a trio of ageing musketeers - Chris Horner (39), Levi Leipheimer (37) and Andreas Klöden (36) – who each have overall stage race wins to their names this season (the Tour of California, Tour de Suisse and Tour of the Basque Country respectively). They will be joined in a four-pronged attack by Janez Brajkovič, the winner of last year’s Critérium du Dauphiné, but the Slovenian is more likely to be pushed into a support role here.

Damiano Cunego

Lampre’s Damiano Cunego, a Giro winner in 2004, skipped his home race this year to focus on the Tour. He is a strong climber whose Achilles’ heel is time-trialling, as he demonstrated at the Tour de Suisse. He is certainly capable of improving on his previous best Tour finish of 11th (in 2006), but may struggle to challenge for the podium positions.

Reigning Olympic road race champion Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) finished fourth last year and will look for better this time round. He will most likely target the Pyrenean stages where his team will receive the raucous support of hundreds of thousands of Basque fans.

Finally, in what may well be his last Tour, Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) will undoubtedly seek one last stage win with a kamikaze solo attack, either in the first week or possibly on one of the mountain stages which does not conclude with a summit finish.

Tour de France preview

The Tour in numbers

Teams and sponsors (part 1)

Teams and sponsors (part 2)

Official Tour teaser video

Six key stages

Stage 1 preview

Links: Tour de France official website, Steephill.tv

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The week in numbers: w/e 19/6/11

June 20, 2011 2 Comments

Tremlett took his first six-for as an England player

6 – England‘s Chris Tremlett took an international career best 6/48 in Sri Lanka‘s first innings in the third Test at the Rose Bowl.

150 – Having hosted this season’s Champions League final, Wembley Stadium has also been awarded the 2013 final to mark the FA’s 150th anniversary.

4 – In seconds, the winning margin of Levi Leipheimer at the nine-day Tour de Suisse, a key warm-up event in advance of the Tour de France.

665 – In minutes, the length of the Wimbledon men’s singles first round match between John Isner and Nicolas Mahut last year. The pair have been drawn together again in this year’s first round.

23 – Wickets that fell on Sunday alone in the County Championship match between Middlesex and Kent. Tim Murtagh took 5/27 as Kent were skittled out for 87, while Azhar Mahmood claimed 6/36 as Middlesex were dismissed for 153. Kent closed on 46/3 in their second innings.

McIlroy broke a string of records at the US Open (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

268 – Shots taken by Rory McIlroy in winning the US Open, four fewer than the previous record (by four others).

49 – Runner-up Jason Day‘s eight-under par score would have been enough to have won 49 of the last 50 US Opens.

2 – McIlroy became the second consecutive winner from Northern Ireland, after Graeme McDowell last year.

2 – Goals conceded by England under-21s after the 88th minute in their must-win game against the Czech Republic at the European U21 Championships. They lost 2-1 and failed to qualify for the semi-finals as a result.

(Some statistics courtesy of Opta Sports and @InfostradaLive.)

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Tour de Suisse stage 8 & 9: Sagan and Cancellara doubles, Cunego has his Fignon moment

June 19, 2011 9 Comments

Stage 8: Tübach to Schaffhouse, 167.3km

Liquigas‘s Peter Sagan claimed his second sprint victory of the Tour de Suisse, beating Matt Goss and Ben Swift on an uphill finish in Schaffhouse. Race leader Damiano Cunego finished safely in the front group, but Bauke Mollema dropped from second to fifth ahead of Sunday’s decisive individual time trial.

The day’s breakaway comprised Francisco Ventoso (Movistar), Luca Paolini (Katusha), Jaroslaw Marycz (Saxo Bank-Sungard) and Jan Barta (Net App). They escaped in the opening kilometres and established a lead of seven minutes before the peloton started to bring them back in. Paolini and Marycz dropped the other two with 30km remaining, but were nonetheless caught 11km from the finish.

Sagan claimed his second win of the week (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

Movistar’s high tempo on the third-category Hallauerberg climb 22km from the end split the peloton, with the pace proving too much for several sprinters, including Mark Cavendish and André Greipel, who would both have been hopeful of victory here. And after Mollema punctured with 15km remaining Leopard-Trek moved to the front to drive the pace in an effort to promote Fränk Schleck in the general classification, leading to not unreasonable accusations of poor sportsmanship from Rabobank.

Vacansoleil‘s Wouter Poels took a speculative flier with 2.3km to go, but was swamped as he passed under the flamme rouge. On a slightly uphill finish, Sagan was led out by Daniel Oss but found himself boxed in. However, he calmly worked his way out of trouble as Sky‘s Swift opened up the sprint with 200 metres to go. That proved to be too soon, though, as the incline sapped his effort and Sagan was easily able to sweep around him to take victory by two lengths. Goss also caught Swift before the line to steal second.

Despite a big effort, Mollema was unable to bridge the gap and slipped down to fifth overall after losing 48 seconds to the front group, which contained yellow jersey Cunego, Steven Kruijswijk, Fränk Schleck and Levi Leipheimer.

Sagan was delighted with his second win, which also guaranteed him victory in the points competition:

I’m really happy with this win, mainly because I’m capitalising on all the opportunities presented by the race. Today’s stage was a tricky one to judge due to the profile in the finale. I was expecting an attack that would split the group, and that’s what happened. Many of the riders, including some of the sprinters, lost contact.

It was a really hard finale but thankfully in the final kilometre I had Daniel Oss leading me out. I’m very satisfied with this second win and the points jersey. It’s been a huge success for me this week.

Cunego maintained his 1:36 advantage over Kruijswijk. Not the greatest of time-trialists, his greatest threat for overall victory is likely to come from Leipheimer who is fourth, 1:59 behind. However, he was hopeful of defending the yellow jersey for one last day:

I’ve got quite a good lead and I’m in great form at the moment so it’s up to the guys behind me to catch me.

Stage 8 result:

1. Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) 3:52:00

2. Matt Goss (HTC-Highroad) same time

3. Ben Swift (Sky) s.t.

4. Koldo Fernández (Euskaltel-Euskadi) s.t.

5. Thor Hushovd (Garmin-Cervélo) s.t.

Stage 9: Schaffhouse, 32.1km individual time trial

Fabian Cancellara book-ended the Tour de Suisse with his second time trial victory, although he was run mighty close by Andreas Klöden. However, it was Klöden’s RadioShack teammate Levi Leipheimer who stole the glory. The American set an outstanding time just 13 seconds slower than Cancellara, then had to wait for eight agonising minutes for Damiano Cunego to come in. The race leader, who had been in possession of the yellow jersey since stage three, had started the day with an advantage of 1:59 over fourth-placed Leipheimer. But in a finish reminiscent of the concluding time trial of the 1989 Tour de France, where yellow jersey Laurent Fignon capitulated in the concluding time trial to lose to Greg Lemond by eight seconds, Cunego lost time throughout the 32.1km course to concede top spot by the slender margin of four seconds.

Cancellara added the final time trial stage to his stage one prologue win (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

All eyes were on the Swiss world time trial champion to set the benchmark and Cancellara duly obliged with a best of 41:01, during the course of which he overtook the three riders in front of him. However, his time was seriously threatened by Klöden, who was five seconds faster at the first checkpoint at 9km, and seven quicker at the second at 22.9km, at the top of the big climb of the day. But he faded on the descent and final flat section, ending up nine seconds slower – which would still be good enough for second.

But the real battle was between Leipheimer, who started fourth-last, and final man Cunego. Although not the best of time-trialists, Cunego’s lead – one second shy of two minutes over the American – was widely thought to be more than sufficient over the course. The fact that he lost 28 seconds to Leipheimer over the first, only moderately rising section was little more than a minor concern. But at the second checkpoint – after the steepest section of climbing, which should have suited him best – Cunego’s advantage was down to just 33 seconds. And any thoughts that Leipheimer might have burnt himself out early on in trying to put pressure on the Italian were dispelled by his time at the finish – 41:14, just 13 seconds down on Cancellara.

There then followed an eight-minute wait as Leipheimer watched Fränk Schleck and Steven Kruijswijk – neither a threat – finish, before a labouring Cunego finally came into view down the closing straight. Seconds ticked agonisingly by, but Cunego’s target time passed with him still 50 metres from the line. Four seconds passed before he finally crossed the finish – the four seconds which provided Leipheimer with his overall margin of victory.

It was not so much that Cunego’s ride had been awful – 39th overall, 2:16 down on Cancellara was perhaps only marginally down on where he would have expected to finish – more that Leipheimer’s had been superb. The American had ridden a quiet and conservative race throughout the week, always there or thereabouts but hardly ever attacking. But on the one occasion when he did show some aggression, in the final few hundred metres of stage six after Cunego had had to give everything chasing down that day’s winner Kruijswijk, he took nine seconds out of the yellow jersey – a seemingly inconsequential amount at the time, but critical in the final analysis.

Leipheimer produced one of his best-ever time trials to snatch victory from Cunego by just four seconds (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

In the high drama of the finish, it is easy to overlook that in Klöden, Leipheimer and Nelson Oliveira, RadioShack placed second, third and fourth on the stage. And while Leopard-Trek had three of the final top ten on general classification, their highest placed finisher was not defending champion Schleck, but one of his senior foot-soldiers, Jakob Fuglsang, who was fourth overall.

Leipheimer was delighted with his morale-boosting win:

What a race. I really didn’t know how close it was with Cunego. All I heard was my director yelling at me in the last corner “Sprint! Sprint!” and I could hear in his voice that it really was a question of seconds.

“This Tour de Suisse has really been tough this year. Very mountainous, very hard. I had some good days, but also bad days, but without Team RadioShack there was no way I could win today. I am very happy I did not disappoint. Now it’s time to take some rest and start in the Tour de France.

Cunego said that he had suspected the course might not suit him, but also praised Leipheimer’s performance:

I’m really sorry I lost but that’s sport, you have to learn to lose before you can enjoy victory.

This morning I watched the path of the chrono and immediately I realized that was not suitable to my characteristics with the long straight into the wind. We must give credit to the big performance today of Leipheimer, who has once again demonstrated his strength in this speciality.

Stage winner Cancellara was delighted with his week’s efforts, which confirmed his as favourite for the Tour’s sole individual time trial on its penultimate day:

What can I say? It’s a time trial, I gave it 100 percent as I usually do and I won. To start and finish the race the way I have done, with two victories, makes it a perfect Tour of Switzerland for me.

So, who is in good form ahead of the Tour de France? Klöden showed well in both time trials and can be expected to form a formidable one-two punch with Leipheimer. Andy Schleck was anonymous for much of the week, but had two good workouts on mountain stages that suggested his best form is not that far away. Rabobank showed they will be a team to reckon with in the mountains, although their highest-placed finisher Kruijswijk is unlikely to race in the Tour having already ridden the Giro. And Peter Sagan showed that he will be a contender on the uphill sprints and lumpy stages scattered throughout the first week of the Tour which may favour the strong-man sprinters over the pure speedsters. Many have chosen not to show the true strength of their hand this week, but we have seen enough to know that there will be plenty of contenders for the various jerseys when the Tour kicks off in two weeks’ time. We will find out soon enough.

Stage 9 result:

1. Fabian Cancellara (Leopard-Trek) 41:01

2. Andreas Klöden (RadioShack) +0:09

3. Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack) +0:13

4. Nelson Oliveira (RadioShack) +0:25

5. Tom Danielson (Garmin-Cervélo) +0:38

General classification:

1. Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack) 31:45:02

2. Damiano Cunego (Lampre-ISD) +0:04

3. Steven Kruijswijk (Rabobank)+1:02

4. Jakob Fuglsang (Leopard-Trek) +1:10

5. Bauke Mollema (Rabobank) +2:05

6. Mathias Frank (BMC) +2:24

7. Fränk Schleck (Leopard-Trek) +2:35

8. Laurens Ten Dam (Rabobank) +3:11

9. Tom Danielson (Garmin-Cervélo) +3:17

10. Maxime Monfort (Leopard-Trek) +4:12

Sprint classification:

1. Lloyd Mondory (Ag2R La Mondiale) 27 pts

2. Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil-DCM) 12

3. Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Syep) 11

4. Luca Paolini (Katusha) 10

5. José Iván Gutiérrez (Movistar) 10

Mountains classification:

1. Andy Schleck (Leopard-Trek) 44 pts

2. Laurens Ten Dam (Rabobank) 35

3. Damiano Cunego (Lampre-ISD) 30

4. Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Cervélo) 21

5. Steven Kruijswijk (Rabobank) 20

Points classification:

1. Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) 86 pts

2. José Joaquín Rojas (Movistar) 50

3. Tejay Van Garderen (HTC-Highroad) 44

4. Damiano Cunego (Lampre-ISD) 39

5. Thor Hushovd (Garmin-Cervélo) 36

Links: Tour de Suisse official website (French/German), Steephill.tv

Tour de Suisse recaps

Stage 1: No surprise as Cancellara wins opening time trial

Stage 2 & 3: Soler and Sagan win on up-and-down days

Stage 4 & 5: Hushovd and Božič triumph in uphill sprints

Stage 6 & 7: Soler crash overshadows Kruijswijk and De Gendt wins

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Tour de France week 1 review: The good, the bad and the ugly

July 12, 2010 11 Comments

It may be the first rest day at the Tour de France, but as the saying goes there is no rest for the wicked blogger. After all, if the riders’ idea of a ‘rest’ day is to only go out for a two or three-hour ride, who am I to ease off? So, here are my (mostly serious) thoughts looking back on an eventful opening week of the 2010 Tour, and a couple of quick predictions for the coming days. Let me know if you agree or disagree!

Current yellow jersey Cadel Evans (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

Biggest winner: Cadel Evans. Despite his BMC team apparently suffering from a distinct fear of heights every time the road starts pointing skywards, Evans finds himself in the yellow jersey after yesterday’s thrilling stage to Morzine-Avoriaz. He will struggle not to lose time on the big summit finishes in the Pyrenees but will fancy his chances if he is still within touching distance of the race lead going into stage 19′s individual time trial. His immediate challenge is to find a way to give up the yellow jersey to a minor name without conceding chunks of time to his biggest rivals, but he is looking a strong bet to make the Paris podium. The question is: which step?

Lance Armstrong (image courtesy of Velocia)

Biggest loser: Lance Armstrong. Now over 13 minutes down on the race lead, Armstrong’s challenge died yesterday after he was caught up in three separate accidents – a decade’s worth of bad luck all in one day. What he does next will be one of the most interesting sub-plots of the next two weeks. Will he support friend and RadioShack teammate Levi Leipheimer in the Pyrenees to make a challenge for the yellow jersey? Or will he seek one final, glorious stage win for himself? Whatever happens, don’t expect him to just soft-pedal in the anonymity of the peloton: this is Lance Armstrong we’re talking about here, and Lance does not do anonymous.

Walked under a ladder while walking on the cracks in the pavements, breaking a mirror and other bad stuff: Christian Vande Velde of Garmin-Transitions. Stage two: crashed, fractured two ribs. May 2010: crashed and broke his clavicle at the Giro d’Italia. May 2009: crashed and fractured two ribs at the Giro. Need I say more? If there’s an accident, odds are Vande Velde is not too far away. He is surely the unluckiest man in the peloton.

Runner-up: Lance Armstrong. I wonder if Vande Velde somehow transferred his bad karma to Lance – who has said some less than complimentary things about him in the past – before departing the Tour? I’m just saying.

Jurgen van den Broeck

Biggest surprise: Jurgen van den Broeck. Fourth overall (1:03 down on Evans), the Omega Pharma-Lotto team leader has flown in under many people’s radar (mine included) to establish himself as a genuine contender. Yesterday, he finished comfortably in the Contador/Evans/Leipheimer group. A dark horse, albeit one who may not stay the distance.

Garmin-Transitions’ Ryder Hesjedal (6th, 1:11 down on Evans) has also done brilliantly, stepping into the team leader’s role vacated by the injured Vande Velde.

Making quiet progress: Denis Menchov (5th), Roman Kreuziger (7th), Levi Leipheimer (8th). Almost invisibly, these three extremely capable riders are right on the coat-tails of the leaders. Leipheimer is now RadioShack’s de facto number one after Armstrong’s bad day. Kreuziger may soon take precedence over Ivan Basso in Liquigas‘s priorities. And Menchov has already crashed 916 fewer times than he had at the same point in last year’s Tour. (Okay, I’m exaggerating: it’s actually 816 fewer.) Menchov and Leipheimer may be difficult to spot as they ride in the wheels of others; you can’t miss Kreuziger because of Liquigas’s bright green kit.

Roman Kreuziger

Stuck in the shadows: Robert Gesink and Roman Kreuziger. Gesink is 11th, 1:27 behind Rabobank teammate Menchov and 2:37 behind Evans, and is likely to remain stuck in the shadows unless Menchov blows up. Kreuizger is just 56 seconds ahead of Giro winner Ivan Basso, and it is hard to see Liquigas throwing their lot behind him unless Basso drops off the pace, by which time Kreuziger’s chances of a podium finish may be terminally compromised. Decisions, decisions.

Handbags at dawn: After the concluding sprint on stage six, Quick Step‘s Carlos Barredo and Caisse d’Epargne‘s Rui Costa had an, er, difference of opinion when the latter caused a touch of handlebars on the final run-in. After crossing the finishing line, Barredo attempted to club him with his own front wheel, initiating something that vaguely represented a fist-fight. Neither is likely to be called upon to fight in Vegas for the delectation of a pay-per-view audience any time soon.

Sylvain Chavanel

Heart-warming story: Sylvain Chavanel. In April, he fractured his skull when he ran into the back of a team car during Liège-Bastogne-Liège. On stage two into Spa, on a course which covered some of the same roads used in that race, Chavanel claimed a solo breakaway win and the yellow jersey, aided in no small part by the peloton staging a go-slow protest after several crashes. He then lost the lead in heart-breaking fashion the following day after a series of mechanical problems on cobbled roads. But, in true Hollywood style, he then reclaimed the yellow jersey with a gutsy solo ride to Station des Rousses on stage seven, a win which required no external assistance.

France has a new hero which, in the absence of a genuine yellow jersey contender, means that no one is going to steal Chavanel’s thunder, and he will be able to dine out on his 2010 Tour experiences for years to come. Good on him.

Rafael Valls Ferri, sporting Footon-Servetto's funky gold kit

Best new team: Footon-Servetto. I was going to say Sky in my partisan British way, who for much of the first week had their own fairy-tale story in Geraint Thomas, second overall at one stage was second overall and in the white jersey as best young rider. But the fledgling Footon-Servetto team, comprising nine Tour first-timers and sponsored by the unlikely combination of a US bike manufacturer and an Italian wardrobe company, have won me over. Rafael Valls Ferri has given the sponsors valuable camera time on the climbing stages so far, and their funky gold-with-black-footprint racing kit adds an eye-catching splash of colour to a peloton which could hardly be called monochrome already.

Mark Cavendish

Going up?: Mark Cavendish. 65 points behind a rampant Thor Hushovd in the points competition and in helmet-throwing mood after a crushing defeat by Alessandro Petacchi on stage four, he had closed the gap to 33 within 48 hours after two dominant wins. It’s still a big deficit to make up given the limited number of remaining sprints, but Cavendish has momentum now – and there is no one in the peloton better at using momentum than the Manx Missile.

Going down?: Thor Hushovd. He appeared to be turning the green jersey contest into a one-bike race at one point, but two subdued finishes on stages five (fifth place) and six (tenth) have left me wondering if the collarbone injury he sustained in May is starting to hinder him. If so, it is only going to get worse over the course of a three-week race, which will leave him vulnerable to the now fully-recovered Cavendish and the rapidly-recovering Tyler Farrar.

Jens Voigt

The old man’s award: Jens Voigt. I could easily have given this either of two veteran sprinters, Petacchi and Robbie McEwen, who are (surprisingly) featuring very strongly in the points competition, but I have to go with my sentimental favourite. The German veteran (he turns 39 in two months’ time) with the massive engine (the legal, two-legged variety, not the illegal, motorised one) can often be found setting a furious tempo on the front of the pack, driving himself into the ground for Andy Schleck – and then he comes back for punishment more the next day. He is a joy to watch and an example to younger riders.

Excessive caution award: Fabian Cancellara, who used his position as the yellow jersey to organise a go-slow, neutralising the dangerous final descent on stage two – and, entirely coincidentally, of course, allowing his teammates Andy and Frank Schleck to catch up with the peloton after an earlier crash. I can live with that decision. But why did he then have to neutralise the sprint finish as well, much to the chagrin of Thor Hushovd, most of the sprinters and the thousands gathered at the finish in Spa? While safety concerns are to be generally applauded, this is still a bike race. On this occasion Cancellara didn’t live up to his nickname: less Spartacus, more Toys R Us.

Bravery award: Tour organisers ASO for producing a varied and challenging first week itinerary which has given us the (sadly unfulfilled) potential for disruptive crosswinds (stage one), the tricky hills of the Ardennes classics (stage two) and the cobblestones of Paris-Roubaix (stage three), as well as the usual bunch sprints. You have to wonder how much the difficulty of the opening days contributed to the way the peloton shattered so easily on the last two mountain stages. Certainly it didn’t hurt. The riders complained about the various dangers and challenges and disruption to the smooth natural order of things, so ASO must have been doing something right.

Best stage: Stage three, taking in 13.2 km of the cobbled roads used in the Paris-Roubaix classic. ‘Hell of the North’, indeed. It made for compelling viewing, with something dramatic constantly happening somewhere on the course in the final hour or so. It was the finest flat stage I have ever seen, and one of the best ever, period. More, please!

Damiano Cunego

Two to watch out for in the mountains: 45 minutes down on the leaders, Damiano Cunego should now have carte blanche to slip away in any break he chooses. As a former winner of the Giro, he knows his way up a mountain. Coming down on the longest, fastest descents, look for Linus Gerdemann and his distinctive descending position, sitting down and forward over the frame of his bike to create a profile which is as aerodynamic as it is uncomfortable.

Who’s going to win?: Despite his little wobble yesterday, it’s still Alberto Contador for me, with Andy Schleck second and Cadel Evans third.

Who’s going to disappoint?: Bradley Wiggins, who looked alarmingly short of legs yesterday, and still has to face more tough climbs in the Pyrenees than he did in finishing fourth last year. Top ten, at best.

Menchov will probably fall off his bike on a descent somewhere. Van den Broeck will be blown out of the back of the elite group in the Pyrenees (but he won’t be alone in that). And Leipheimer will be good, but not quite good enough, which seems to be the story of his career (four top-five finishes in Grand Tours, but no wins).

Those are my guesses, anyway. If you want accurate prognostications, go consult Paul the Octopus.

Back to the racing tomorrow and the Col de la Madeleine. I’m smiling at the prospect already …

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Alps preview: 20 riders to watch

July 10, 2010 2 Comments

It has been a relatively quiet first week in the Tour de France for the both the yellow jersey and polka dot jersey contenders, as the sprinters have taken centre stage. All that is about to change though, as the race enters the Alps today.

From both a GC and a King of the Mountains perspective, here is my selection of 20 key men to keep an eye on, and what I think they will do from a tactical perspective over the next four stages. (Please note that these are the views of an enthusiastic fan who in no way claims to be an expert. So think twice before remortgaging your house …)

I have used third-placed Cadel Evans as my reference point for timings, as neither of the top two (Fabian Cancellara and Geraint Thomas) are regarded as contenders for either the yellow or polka dot jerseys. You can be sure than Contador, Schleck and the other big guns will be doing likewise. So, in order of current position in the general classification, here goes:

Geraint Thomas

Geraint Thomas (Sky)

Current position: 2nd overall, 0:20 behind Cancellara and 0:169 ahead of Evans.

Objective: Support Bradley Wiggins.

Tactical analysis: Thomas’s ability in the mountains is an unknown quantity – this is only his second Tour – and he will probably struggle to keep up with the yellow jersey group, but from a British perspective it will be an interesting marker for the future to see how well he goes here in the Alps. His primary role will be to generally support team leader Wiggins and do as well as he can for himself, but don’t expect him to be slugging it out for the stage win on the slopes of Morzine. However, he will be encouraged by the possibility of taking over the yellow jersey from Cancellara today, even if it is only for one day.

Cadel Evans

Cadel Evans (BMC)

Current position: 3rd overall, 0:39 behind Cancellara and 0:19 behind Thomas.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: ‘Cuddles’ is showing signs of replicating his strong form at May’s Giro and is currently the best placed of the GC contenders. He is likely to watch and wait here, saving his big efforts for the Pyrenees and the final time trial. Although he may lose a bit of time if Contador or Schleck accelerate hard on the final climbs, he should be able to keep his losses to a minimum to leave himself in good shape.

Andy Schleck

Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank)

Current position: 6th, 0:30 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Schleck does not need to attack in the Alps, but he will be hoping he can eke out half a minute or more on his rivals if he can with a well-timed acceleration close to a summit finish. If he is going to attack anywhere, expect it to be in the closing kilometres of the Morzine climb, where the gradient suddenly increases.

Alexandre Vinokourov

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

Current position: 8th, 0:52 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Alberto Contador, high position in GC.

Tactical analysis: It’s still not entirely clear whether Vinokourov harbours any hopes of wresting control of Astana from Contador, but expect him to behave himself for the moment and support Contador if needed, without sacrificing his own GC hopes. A planned solo attack on the long descent from the Madeleine on stage nine is not out of the question; it’s exactly the sort of kamikaze move the Vino of old would make, but chances are he will follow team orders and act dutifully as Contador’s wing-man for now. But if Contador has any kind of problem, watch out.

Defending champion Alberto Contador

Alberto Contador (Astana)

Current position: 9th, 1:01 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Contador will expect support from Vinokourov, but will probably not need it. After a good result over the stage three cobbles, he does not need to attack in the Alps, but like Schleck he will probably choose to attack on Morzine – as he did at Verbier last year – to make a statement and test the legs of his closest rivals.

Jurgen van den Broeck

Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Current position: 10th, 1:03 behind Evans.

Objective: GC, possibly King of the Mountains (KoM).

Tactical analysis: Van den Broeck is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He lacks the acceleration and top-end power to force his way clear, and is is too high up on GC to be allowed to escape if he attacks. For now, he will probably ride relatively conservatively to consolidate his top-ten position, and ensure he picks up enough points on the summits to enable a switch of focus to the polka dot jersey if he cannot live with the pace of the top men.

Denis Menchov

Denis Menchov (Rabobank)

Current position: 13th, 1:10 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Menchov has not yet had any of the mishaps which so often seem to befall him at the Tour, and he will be quietly satisfied with his progress so far. He will probably elect to follow wheels for now, saving his legs for the Pyrenees and knowing that he is capable of producing an excellent time trial.

Bradley Wiggins

Bradley Wiggins (Sky)

Current position: 14th, 1:10 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Wiggins eased himself back into contention by finishing stage three in the Contador group, after a disastrous gamble with an early start time cost him in the prologue. Like Menchov, he will ride defensively and look to build his climbing form – he has yet to prove he can ride away from leading contenders on steep climbs – ahead of the Pyrenees and the individual time trial, which is probably his best chance of gaining time on Contador and Schleck.

Roman Kreuziger

Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo)

Current position: 16th, 1:45 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Ivan Basso, high position in GC.

Tactical analysis: Despite currently occupying a higher position on GC than his team leader, Kreuziger’s primary brief for now will be to support Basso. Liquigas will probably hedge their bets with both riders for the moment, though, until it is clear whether Basso can replicate his Giro-winning form and become a genuine podium threat. If not, the team may free up Kreuziger to ride his own race – but don’t expect that to happen until the Pyrenees. A watching brief for now.

Lance Armstrong

Lance Armstrong (RadioShack)

Current position: 18th, 1:51 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: An untimely puncture over the cobblestones cost Armstrong dearly on Tuesday, and he now finds himself in a position where he – more than almost any other leading rider – needs to attack in an attempt to reduce his deficit. He appears to lack the acceleration he formerly possessed, so a late charge on Morzine is unlikely, but look for a more sustained attack earlier on a climb in the hope of catching some of his rivals by surprise – possibly even this afternoon’s ascent to Station des Rousses or, if he is feeling brave, the descent from the Madeleine on Tuesday.

Levi Leipheimer

Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack)

Current position: 24th, 2:14 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Lance Armstrong, high position in GC.

Tactical analysis: Leipheimer’s ambitions will be restricted by the imperative to support Armstrong, but expect RadioShack to come up with a strategy which does not sacrifice his position completely should his leader falter. He is not the most aggressive climber but, like Wiggins and Menchov, will probably aim to stay in touch and throw everything into the time trial.

Samuel Sánchez

Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

Current position: 31st, 2:25 behind Evans.

Objective: GC, possibly KoM and stage wins (although will probably prioritise the Pyrenees over the Alps).

Tactical analysis: Do not be surprised if Sánchez and teammate Egoi Martínez form a two-pronged attack to try to crack the leading group of riders, possibly on the long climb of the Madeleine. Stage wins or the polka dot jersey may also be a target. They will probably prioritise the Pyrenees for those in front of the cycling-mad Basque fans, but don’t be surprised if one or both of them get into an escape group on stage seven, nine or ten, all of which offer opportunities for a breakaway win.

Robert Gesink

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Current position: 42nd, 2:37 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Denis Menchov, possibly KoM and stage wins.

Tactical analysis: Given his questionable descending ability and mediocre time-trialling, Gesink is already too far behind to mount a realistic podium challenge. He will be asked to support Menchov and possibly be given the opportunity to go for a stage win somewhere along the line.

Carlos Sastre

Carlos Sastre (Cervelo)

Current position: 46th, 2:40 behind Evans.

Objective: A decent GC finish, and maybe a stage win.

Tactical analysis: Sastre looks a shadow of the man who won the 2008 Tour. A good climber with a tendency to struggle on the early part of steep ascents, he may be better suited to this year’s Alpine stages than the Pyrenean ones to come. He is probably now considered to be a minor enough threat to be allowed a solo break over the next four days, and a stage win would represent a good return after what has been a disappointing first week.

Ivan Basso

Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Doimo)

Current position: 47th, 2:41 behind Evans.

Objective: GC, possibly KoM and stage wins.

Tactical analysis: Basso has been poor so far, losing big chunks of time in both the prologue and the cobbles of stage three. He  is already in a position where, if he wants a high finish in the GC, he needs a big, successful attack. He may choose to leave his effort until the Pyrenees, however, where the biggest potential gains are. It is also possible Liquigas may switch his focus towards stage wins and King of the Mountains, although it is probably too early for that just yet.

John Gadret

John Gadret (AG2R)

Current position: 55th, 2:51 behind Evans.

Objective: KoM, stage wins.

Tactical analysis: He is no threat to the yellow jersey contenders, so will have a relatively free hand to escape in breakaways to pursue stage wins and KoM points. May attempt to fulfil both objectives with a well-timed attack on stage nine over the hors catégorie Col de la Madeleine.

Egoi Martínez

Egoi Martínez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

Current position: 68th, 3:07 behind Evans.

Objective: KoM, stage wins (although will probably prioritise the Pyrenees over the Alps).

Tactical analysis: See Samuel Sánchez.

Jens Voigt

Jens Voigt (Saxo Bank)

Current position: 147th, 18:46 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Andy Schleck, drive as hard as he can until he drops.

Tactical analysis: One of the oldest men in the field (he is 39 in September, the day before Lance Armstrong), no one works harder for his team than Voigt. You will undoubtedly see him at the front of the yellow jersey group – or possibly dropping back from an escape group to help out – over the next four days. His task will be to set a punishing tempo on the lower slopes of the final climb of the day, preventing attacks and acting as the springboard for Andy Schleck. You will see him hanging over his bars, eyes bulging, tongue hanging out, for as long as his body holds out. And then, job done, he will slide down the field and come back for more of the same the next day. I am an unabashed Mark Cavendish fan, but Voigt is my second favourite rider in the entire peloton. Watch the old man at work – they don’t make many like him.

Damiano Cunego

Damiano Cunego (Lampre)

Current position: 166th, 22:32 behind Evans.

Objective: KoM, stage wins.

Tactical analysis: Way down the overall classification after an earlier crash, this will give Cunego the freedom to attack at will in the mountains, knowing he is no threat to the GC men. Expect him to feature frequently in breakaways, make solo attacks, in fact anything that gives him a sniff of a stage win or some serious mountains points.

Matthew Lloyd

Matthew Lloyd (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Current position: 170th, 25:57 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Jurgen van den Broeck, possiblyKoM.

Tactical analysis: Lloyd’s primary aim for the moment is to support and protect teammate van den Broeck, but do not be surprised if he is inserted into a break – particularly on stage nine, where there are KoM points aplenty – to maximise Lotto’s tactical options and put him in a position where he can always drop back to assist van den Broeck.

For a guide to the four Alpine stages (7-10), please check out my preview here.

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