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The week in numbers: w/e 15/1/12

January 16, 2012 1 Comment

Yet another hat-trick for Messi (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

3 – Lionel Messi was awarded his third Ballon d’Or, becoming the fourth player (after Johan Cruyff, Michel Platini and Marco Van Basten) to win three times. He is only the second man after Platini to do so in three consecutive years.

23 – Sachin Tendulkar was dismissed for 15 and 8 as Australia defeated India by an innings and 37 runs in the third Test in Perth to take a 3-0 lead in the four-match series. Tendulkar remains stuck on 99 international centuries and has now gone 23 innings without registering a ton.

69 – Australia’s David Warner needed just 69 balls to score his century in Perth, the fourth-fastest ton in Test history. Four of the seven fastest centuries have been scored at the WACA. He finished with a total of 180 off 159 deliveries.

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The week in numbers: w/e 8/1/12

January 9, 2012 6 Comments

Philander has made an astonishing start to his Test career

224 - Jacques Kallis, playing in his 150th Test, recorded his highest ever score of 224 as South Africa won the third and final Test in Cape Town to clinch a ten-wicket win and a 2-1 series victory over Sri Lanka.

30 - South Africa’s Vernon Philander took six wickets in the match, raising his totals after just four Tests to 30 wickets at an average of just 13.23 runs and one wicket every 25.2 balls.

1 - Andy Murray won his first tournament of 2012, defeating Ukraine’s Alexandr Dolgopolov 6-1 6-3 in the final of the Brisbane International.

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AFC Championship: Steelers’ goalline stand denies Jets’ fightback

January 24, 2011 8 Comments

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Jets 19

A pair of touchdowns 52 seconds apart and a dramatic fourth quarter goalline stand propelled the Pittsburgh Steelers to an NFL record-tying eighth Super Bowl, as the New York Jets finally ran out of gas on their long road trip around the north-eastern United States. The Steelers will now take on the Green Bay Packers in a clash of two of the NFL’s most storied and successful franchises, boasting a combined Super Bowl record of 9-2.

The Jets had already won this season at the Steelers’ Heinz Field home, emerging as 22-17 victors in week 15 after Ben Roethlisberger twice failed to find a winning pass from their 10-yard line as time expired. Their return trip to the same venue took in stop-overs at Indianapolis (17-16) and New England (28-21), as they arrived at the AFC Championship game via two road victories for the second season in succession. Pittsburgh’s route had been more straightforward, although they had had to overturn a 21-7 halftime deficit against the Baltimore Ravens the previous weekend.

Jets grounded in first half

Mendenhall carried the Steelers offense in the first half, scoring the opening TD (image courtesy of steelers.com)

The Steelers took the opening kickoff and immediately produced the longest touchdown drive (15 plays) in a Championship game since 1998. Rashard Mendenhall carried the ball eight times, while Roethlisberger completed short passes to wide receivers Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, and scampered for 13 yards on third-and-12 to keep the drive alive. The series was capped after over nine minutes when Mendenhall’s second effort took him across the goalline from a yard out.

By contrast, the Jets and their quarterback Mark Sanchez were unable to gain any kind of traction offensively in the first half. The Jets’ aggressive defense struggled to compensate for their offense’s impotence. Pittsburgh’s second possession came up short on the edge of field goal range when Mike Tomlin elected to go for it on fourth-and-one from the 32 and Roethlisberger’s pass bounced off Mendenhall’s hands and was picked off by veteran linebacker Bryan Thomas. The interception was Roethlisberger’s first in his last 198 passes, the longest streak of his career.

Nonetheless, Pittsburgh were moving the ball with ominous efficiency. Although the Steelers repeatedly tried – and failed – to beat the Jets’ secondary deep, Mendenhall continued to grind out the hard yards to keep the chains moving.

Sanchez went three-and-out on the Jets’ next two offensive series, and each time the Steelers punished them with points. First they marched 60 yards – all on the ground – to Shaun Suisham‘s 20-yard field goal. Then, on the back of 24, 20 and 14-yard pass completions, Roethlisberger rolled out to his right and took it into the endzone himself from the two.

Gay's fumble return TD looked to have sealed the game for Pittsburgh (image courtesy of steelers.com)

17-0 down against the NFL’s meanest defence (in terms of points allowed) was bad enough. But 52 seconds and two sacks later, it was 24-0. Sanchez was hit by Ike Taylor on a corner blitz as he set up to throw – the officials ruled it a fumble rather than an incomplete pass – and William Gay scooped up the loose ball and scooted into the endzone for a 19-yard touchdown return.

Having gone punt, punt, punt, fumble and amassed a pathetic 11 yards on their first four possessions, the Jets’ offense finally sprang into life. With Pittsburgh easing into prevent mode in the final minute of the half, Sanchez finally established a semblance of rhythm, completing four passes – and almost having a couple intercepted – to set up Nick Folk for a 42-yard field goal which barely crept inside the left-hand upright.

It was a small victory, but a significant confidence boost nonetheless at the end of a half which had seen Pittsburgh dominate in just about every way possible, holding on to possession for over 21 minutes, outgaining the Jets 135-1 on the ground (and 231-50 overall) and earning 16 first downs compared to just five.

Jets take off after half-time

Much as in the earlier NFC Championship game, however, the second half took on a completely different complexion, with the Jets turning the tables in terms of yardage, 239-56, as they opened up their normally conservative offense to chase the game.

Holmes' TD gave the Jets hope (image courtesy of newyorkjets.com)

The half did not start promisingly. Brad Smith mishandled the opening kickoff as it bounced in front of him, pinning the Jets back on their 10. But running back Shonn Greene, who had rushed for just four yards in the first half, ripped off a 23-yard gain up the left sideline, and then Sanchez hit former Steeler Santonio Holmes (the Super Bowl XLII MVP), who had not caught a single pass to that point, first for 16 yards and then 45 and a touchdown after sucking in the Steelers with a play-action fake.

The Jets’ defense also stepped up their game, plugging the lanes which Mendenhall had found with regularity in the first half, and continuing to prevent Roethlisberger from hooking up with his wide receivers. (After their opening drive of the game Ward caught just one more pass, Wallace none.)

Their increased aggression started to force errors from the Pittsburgh offense. First Roethlisberger fumbled the snap from backup center Doug Legursky (starter Maurkice Pouncey having left the game injured in the first quarter). On the next play, his deep throw for Emmanuel Sanders presented safety Brodney Pool with an easy interception.

After forcing the Jets to punt, the errors continued. Antwaan Randle El muffed his catch out of bounds, and two sacks in the space of three plays stalled the subsequent drive.

Tomlinson's failure to score on fourth-and-goal cost the Jets dear (image courtesy of newyorkjets.com)

The Jets then embarked on a 17-play, eight-minute drive which would provide the game’s pivotal moment. Sanchez completed four short-to-medium passes to set the ball rolling, then Greene converted on fourth-and-one at the Pittsburgh 18. A third down conversion gave them first-and-goal at the two, but after three plays netted just one yard, LaDainian Tomlinson was stuffed at the line of scrimmage on fourth down.

This was not the spring-heeled Tomlinson of 2006 who rushed for 28 touchdowns in a single season, rather the ten-year veteran who now lacks the burst of acceleration and second effort which in the past would have seen him power his way into the endzone.

Even though Roethlisberger fumbled again on the next play and conceded a safety, the damage had already been done. Instead of reducing their deficit to seven points with nearly eight minutes left, the gap remained at 12.

Despite having a poor game, Roethlisberger produced when it really mattered at the end (image courtesy of steelers.com)

The offense did their best to rectify their error, taking the restart kick and converting another fourth down on their way to Jerricho Cotchery‘s four-yard scoring catch. That made the score 24-19, but the clock was now working against them.

The Steelers came back on to the field with 2:56 remaining needing to spark back into life to run out the clock and Roethlisberger, despite having had a poor game overall, came up trumps as he has so often in the past, completing a pair of 14-yard passes to Heath Miller and Antonio Brown to give Pittsburgh the two first downs they needed to prevent the Jets from ever taking possession again.

In victory, Roethlisberger finished a modest 10-of-19 for 133 yards and two interceptions, while Mendenhall had 121 yards on the ground and two catches for 32 more. For the Jets, Sanchez finished 20-of-33 for 233 yards and had two second half touchdown passes, but it proved to be too little too late after a first half in which he had thrown for just 63 yards.

Super Bowl pointers

The running game – on both sides of the ball – will be key to Green Bay‘s chances in Super Bowl XLV. On offense, they need to at least keep the Steelers’ top-ranked run defense honest, or else Aaron Rodgers will have a tough day against their pass rush.

On defense, they do not possess a pair of elite cornerbacks like the Jets’ Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis – who between them restricted Ward and Wallace to just 20 yards’ receiving – so they will look to slow Mendenhall down with their front four and then look to blanket cover Ward, Wallace and tight end Miller, all of whom Roethlisberger will look for early and deep.

One final point of note. All four starting quarterbacks in the two Championship games are aged 28 or under. With the 41-year old Brett Favre now seemingly retired, Matt Hasselbeck‘s (35) situation in Seattle uncertain, and Peyton Manning (34) and Tom Brady (33) victims of the Sanchez-led Jets in this season’s playoffs, it signifies something of a changing of the guard in the NFL. In the most vital position in football, the next generation is ready to take over from the established superstars of the game, with Roethlisberger (28) and Rodgers (27) at their forefront.

Next stop: Cowboys Stadium, for Super Bowl XLV. Bring it on.

Previous 2010 NFL playoff articles

NFL wild-card playoffs: Manning shows why he isn’t the greatest ever

NFL divisional playoffs: Quarterbacks and defenses key to Conference finalists

NFC Championship: ‘Freezer’ puts Bears on ice, Packers head for Super Bowl

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NFC Championship: ‘Freezer’ puts Bears on ice, Packers head for Super Bowl

January 24, 2011 3 Comments

Chicago Bears 14 Green Bay Packers 21

On a typically cold January afternoon on the shores of Lake Michigan – the temperature at kickoff was -7ºC (20ºF) - Green Bay Packers defensive tackle B.J.’The Freezer’ Raji put the Chicago Bears‘ Super Bowl aspirations on ice with a fourth quarter, 18-yard interception return for a touchdown to squash an unlikely comeback led by third-string quarterback Caleb Hanie. Victory means the Packers advance to Super Bowl XLV to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in two weeks’ time.

The Bears had won the teams’ week three meeting at Soldier Field, scoring 13 fourth quarter points to run out 20-17 winners. The Packers had won the return fixture at Lambeau Field on the final weekend of the regular season, a dour 10-3 victory which clinched the NFC’s sixth and last playoff slot. This gave them the hardest possible route to the NFC Championship game, but 21-16 and 48-21 wins in Philadelphia and Atlanta saw them installed as marginal favourites against a Bears team which had strolled to a 35-24 decision over the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round last week.

Green Bay dominate first half

Rodgers opened the scoring on a one-yard bootleg (image courtesy of packers.com)

The Packers set the tone for the first half on the opening possession of the game. Aaron Rodgers hit receiver Greg Jennings with deep throws on the first two snaps as they marched from their own 16-yard line to the Chicago one in six plays.

On second-and-goal, 337-pound defensive tackle Raji reported in as a lead blocker in the Packers’ ‘heavy’ formation and Rodgers sold the Bears’ defense a dummy, faking the inside hand-off, rolling left on a naked bootleg and beating two defenders to the pylon.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s hot-and-cold offense looked decidedly frozen. With Green Bay applying plenty of pressure with their pass rush, quarterback Jay Cutler – who had had a hot hand against the Seahawks – was struggling to find any rhythm. He overthrew an open Devin Hester down the left sideline on a key third down, and the Bears stalled time and again, punting on their first five possessions.

The Bears’ defense kept the home team in the game, however. A Brian Urlacher sack pushed the Packers out of field goal range, while linebacker Lance Briggs intercepted a low Rodgers pass which appeared to bounce off Donald Driver‘s foot to snuff out another opportunity inside the two-minute warning. However, they were unable to stop rookie running back James Starks capping a six-play, 44-yard drive with a battling four-yard run.

Rookie Shields had two key interceptions (image courtesy of packers.com)

14-0 down approaching half-time following Briggs’s interception, Chicago had one final chance to put points on the board, but Cutler’s underthrown deep ball was picked off by rookie cornerback Sam Shields.

The scoreline was, if anything, generous to the Bears. The Packers had outgained them 252-103 and registered 17 first downs to six, while Chicago had been unable to piece together any consistent threat. Most tellingly, of the two quarterbacks Rodgers had dealt better under pressure. He scrambled for 39 yards in the half and led two touchdown drives, whereas Cutler was visibly rattled by the Packers’ ability to apply both inside and outside pressure and unable to set his feet properly, causing him to throw off his back foot or over the heads of his receivers on several occasions.

Hanie inspires a fourth quarter comeback

The second half, however, was a different affair. The shift in momentum was subtle at first and not borne out on the scoreboard, but it was detectable nonetheless. After Urlacher intercepted Rodgers on third-and-goal on Green Bay’s first drive of the half – Rodgers himself chased back to make a touchdown-saving tackle – the Packers were unable to move the ball for the rest of the game, amassing just 50 further yards.

Starks, who had rushed for 55 yards before half-time, carried ten times for just 19 yards in the second half, while Rodgers was 7-of-15 passing. Urlacher was at the heart of the Bears’ defensive effort, finishing the game with ten tackles, a sack and an interception.

Offensive improvement, however, was a little longer in coming. Cutler led one three-and-out before leaving the game with a knee injury, and backup Todd Collins followed up with two more, completing none of his four passes, before being yanked in favour of third-stringer Caleb Hanie.

With Hanie under centre, the Bears’ offense suddenly came to life. Having amassed a meagre 132 yards through the first three quarters, they would accumulate 169 in the fourth. The third year quarterback – who has never started an NFL game and had only 14 career pass attempts prior to this one – completed both his throws on his first postseason possession, the second an inch-perfect strike to Johnny Knox which the wide receiver carried down to the Green Bay one, from where Chester Taylor punched the ball in to reduce the deficit to 14-7.

Raji rumbled 18 yards for the decisive score (image courtesy of packers.com)

The Bears’ defense held firm on the next two series, but as the clock ticked past the midway point of the fourth quarter Hanie’s inexperience showed. He hurried an ill-advised dump-off to Matt Forte which Raji, dropping off in shallow zone coverage, read superbly, stepping in front of Forte, snagging the ball and rumbling into the endzone to restore the Packers’ two-touchdown advantage. It was the first career interception and first touchdown for the defensive tackle – nicknamed ‘The Freezer’ – and it virtually put the game on ice.

Virtually, but not quite. Undeterred, Hanie completed four straight passes as the Packers dropped into deep coverage, the last a 35-yard score to Earl Bennett. With 4:43 left, Chicago were back within seven of tying the game. And after their defense forced yet another three-and-out, Hanie took over on his own 29 with 2:53 remaining.

The Packers’ secondary played a bit smarter this time. Working both the clock and field position to their advantage, they allowed Hanie to complete nickel-and-dime passes, eventually forcing a fourth-and-five situation where the young quarterback’s desperate heave into double coverage was picked off by Shields for his second interception.

It had been a brave effort by the passer and his youthful offense, but to no avail. The Packers had done just enough in the first half, capitalising on the Bears’ inability to move the football to establish a lead which Chicago’s inconsistent, error-prone offense was always going to struggle to claw back.

In defeat, third year back Matt Forte contributed 70 yards’ rushing and a team playoff record ten catches. Hanie was 13-of-20 passing for one touchdown, but critically also two interceptions. Until his arrival, the Bears struggled to offer much of an aerial threat, in particular proving unable to get the ball to their deep threats, with their receivers and tight end Greg Olsen combining for just one reception before the fourth quarter.

Super Bowl pointers

The Steelers will, however, have been encouraged by the way Chicago shut down the Green Bay offense in the second half with a more aggressive defensive scheme. Rodgers had enough time in the first half to deliver a series of 20-plus yard passes – with Jennings, who finished with eight catches for 130 yards, his main target – but when the Bears applied more up-front pressure in the second half, the Packers were unable to generate any yardage either in the air or on the ground. Pittsburgh will like the way Rashard Mendenhall and their 11th-ranked ground game stacks up against Green Bay’s 18th-ranked rushing defense.

All that, however, is two weeks away. In the meantime, the Packers have become the NFC’s tenth different conference champion in the last ten seasons, and only the second ever sixth-seeded team to reach the Super Bowl. Having won all three of their playoff games on the road against the NFC’s three top-ranked teams, they will have nothing to fear against Pittsburgh.

Previous 2010 NFL playoff articles

NFL wild-card playoffs: Manning shows why he isn’t the greatest ever

NFL divisional playoffs: Quarterbacks and defenses key to Conference finalists

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NFL divisional playoffs: Quarterbacks and defenses key to Conference finalists

January 17, 2011 8 Comments

Having talked last week about how Peyton Manning falls short when it comes to talking about the greatest quarterbacks of all time because of his lacklustre postseason record, this weekend’s games again demonstrated the importance of having a passer who can make big plays when needed while remaining error-free, with the four winning quarterbacks combining for 10 touchdowns without interception.

But it also reminded us of one of the NFL‘s greatest truisms – that offense wins games but defense wins championships – with each of the four Conference finalists ranking in the top six overall in terms of points conceded during the regular season.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Baltimore Ravens 24

In a hard-hitting defensive battle, the Steelers restricted the Ravens to a miserly 126 yards on offense as they overturned a 21-7 half-time deficit. They forced turnovers on three of Baltimore’s first four possessions of the second half to set up 17 unanswered points. Then Ben Roethlisberger threw a 58-yard bomb to rookie receiver Antonio Brown to set up the go-ahead touchdown inside the two-minute warning.

Rashard Mendenhall ran for two touchdowns, while Roethlisberger passed for two more as the quarterback improved his postseason record to 9-2, giving him the second-best win percentage in NFL playoff history – and as many wins in 11 outings as Manning has achieved in 19 attempts.

Atlanta Falcons 21 Green Bay Packers 48

The visiting Packers broke open an even contest with two touchdowns in the final 42 seconds of the first half, as Tramon Williams returned an interception 70 yards for a score. The defense restricted the Falcons to 194 yards and forced four turnovers, while Aaron Rodgers led touchdown drives on five straight possessions as Green Bay racked up 35 unanswered points and did not have to punt in the entire game.

In a masterclass of the art of quarterback play, Rodgers completed 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns, rendering Eric Weems‘ NFL postseason record 102-yard kick return no more than a statistical footnote as the NFC’s top-seeded team were ultimately overrun.

Chicago Bears 35 Seattle Seahawks 24

The Bears eased to victory at a snowy Soldier Field, jumping out to a 21-0 half-time lead courtesy of a 58-yard pass from Jay Culter to Greg Olsen, and keeping the Seahawks out of the endzone until the fourth quarter. The Bears outgained Seattle 238-96 in the first half, then stifled any hope of a Seahawks comeback by retaining possession for 20:11 of the second half with a ball-control offense which racked up 176 yards on the ground.

In his first career postseason start, the often maligned Cutler passed for two touchdowns and ran for two more – becoming only the second quarterback ever to achieve this feat in a playoff game – in an efficient performance.

New England Patriots 21 New York Jets 28

The Jets shocked the team with the NFL’s best regular season record on their own turf, reversing their 45-3 Gillette Stadium battering in week 13, to advance to their second consecutive AFC Championship Game. The defense frustrated Tom Brady and the Patriots‘ offense for much of the game, as Brady threw his first interception in 340 pass attempts and was sacked five times.

Mark Sanchez threw touchdowns to LaDainian Tomlinson, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes to win his fourth career postseason road game, and the defense held firm on a key fourth quarter, fourth down stand to stall the Patriots’ comeback.

Quarterbacks (and offenses) win games?

No matter how conservative a team’s offensive scheme, a playoff-winning team almost always requires its quarterback to have a strong game, or at the very least possess the ability to come up with big plays at critical moments. All four winning quarterbacks delivered on both fronts this weekend.

Roethlisberger improved his playoff record to 9-2. His postseason win percentage of 81.8% is the second highest of all time (image courtesy of steelers.com)

Roethlisberger, one of the quarterbacking fraternity’s genuine tough guys, overcame six sacks – including a fumble returned for a first quarter touchdown – to make one big play after another. Four times he converted on third-and-10-plus to keep alive drives which resulted in 14 points, the last the crucial long completion to Brown which set the Steelers up to win the game.

Rodgers completed an astonishing 86% of his passes in a flawless display in which he showcased both the accuracy of his arm and his ability to escape a pass rush and make plays on the run. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to have registered a passer rating of 120 – 100 is considered a benchmark achievement – in his first three career playoff games, and currently leads all quarterbacks (both past and present) in career passer rating.

Sanchez's four playoff wins have all come on the road (image courtesy of newyorkjets.com)

Cutler, making his first playoff start in the inhospitable environment of a typical January afternoon in Chicago, set the tone with a perfectly thrown deep ball to Olsen, scored twice himself and managed the game well. His only mistake of note, a short pass on the Seattle goalline which should have been intercepted by safety Jordan Babineaux with an open field in front of him, also underlined the one characteristic which all successful quarterbacks need from time to time: luck.

A week after leading a drive in the final minute to the game-winning field goal against Manning’s Indianapolis Colts, Sanchez required fewer heroics this time as he executed the Jets’ balanced offense to perfection. His three touchdown passes tied the team playoff record, and he also registered his fourth postseason win in only his second season, all of which have come the hardest way possible – on the road.

Defenses win championships?

Of course, while quarterbacks frequently play a pivotal role, they are not the only key ingredient for playoff success.

It used to be that most playoff teams possessed a good running game, although in the modern-day, pass-dominated NFL that is no longer the case. Of the eight teams who qualified for this weekend’s divisional round only one – the Jets – had a top quartile running game, with three sides being below average.

Indeed, there is little correlation between the eight teams and strong offensive performance in general, with the ‘average’ ranking in all major offensive categories being somewhere in the middle of the pack. The Bears and Seahawks were both bottom quartile in two of the three key yardage categories, and outside the top 20 in terms of scoring.

A good offense is useful, but it is by no means essential.

Analysis © Tim Liew. Data from nfl.com. Any errors are my own

One thing which remains constant, however, is that a strong defense is far more important to postseason qualification and success. Only a tiny handful of Super Bowl winners have lifted the Vince Lombardi trophy without at least an above-average defensive unit. If you look at the dominant teams in each decade during the Super Bowl era – the 1960s’ Packers, 1970s’ Steelers, 1980s’ San Francisco 49ers, 1990s’ Dallas Cowboys and 2000s’ Patriots – all of them, even the pass happy Niners, had tough, swarming defenses capable of squeezing the life out of opponents.

Despite the ongoing tweaking of the rules which generally favour offenses, that defensive trend has continued this season. Of the final eight, all but the 7-9 Seahawks featured in the top eight in terms of points allowed – an eye-poppingly high correlation – and most also ranked highly in terms of run defense. (Passing and total yardage rankings are typically poorer, but this is to be expected given how often opponents were required to chase games.)

Analysis © Tim Liew. Data from nfl.com. Any errors are my own

The best defenses are adept at applying pressure and forcing opposing offenses into errors – the four winning sides this weekend had 17 sacks and eight turnovers between them – with the Steelers, Packers and Jets all producing big momentum-changing plays from their defensive units.

In terms of yardage, both Pittsburgh and Green Bay restricted their opponents to less than half their own offensive output,  Chicago outgained Seattle 437-276 (the Seahawks managed just 106 in the first three quarters), and although the Jets were outgained 372-314 by New England, they allowed just 127 yards during a first half in which they established an ultimately decisive 11-point lead.

It is no coincidence that the four teams who will contest next weekend’s Conference Championship games all featured in the top six in terms of points allowed. And three of the four (Steelers, Packers, Jets) will do so with quarterbacks who are proven performers in the playoffs as well as the regular season.

Offensive yardage and points are just for show. Just ask the Patriots – who shattered virtually every meaningful record en route to losing Super Bowl XLII, and whose number one-scoring offense this season will be watching Super Bowl XLV at home.

Offense? Who needs an offense?

Previous 2010 NFL playoff articles

NFL wild-card playoffs: Manning shows why he isn’t the greatest ever

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