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Giro d’Italia preview: Key contenders for the maglia rosa

May 6, 2011 7 Comments

The 94th Giro d’Italia starts tomorrow (Saturday) without its defending champion Ivan Basso and several other leading riders such as Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans and Samuel Sánchez, but nonetheless boasts a strong field. Four previous winners – Stefano Garzelli (2000), Danilo di Luca (2007), Alberto Contador (2008) and Denis Menchov (2009) – will take the start line in Turin, along with reigning Vuelta a España champion Vincenzo Nibali and several other contenders who all have the potential to wear the maglia rosa in three weeks’ time.

But who are the genuine contenders, and who are likely to be exposed as mere pretenders?

The top two

Alberto Contador

At first glance, it’s hard to look beyond Alberto Contador, with Vincenzo Nibali a pedal-stroke ahead of the rest in terms of offering the most serious competition to the Spaniard.

Contador has not raced at the Giro since winning in 2008 – for the last two years he has focussed on the Tour de France – and comes into this race as the overwhelming favourite with good reason (Ladbrokes are offering miserly odds of 8/11 at the time of writing). He has won each of the last five Grand Tours he has entered (three Tours, one Giro, one Vuelta). And despite an impending Court of Arbitration for Sport hearing hanging over his head, he has been in sparkling form this spring, winning the Vuelta a Murcia and the Volta a Catalunya stage races and looking strong in both the mountains and the time trials. He is unquestionably the strongest and most consistent stage race rider in the world, capable of launching savage accelerations on the steepest climbs and competing with the top men in individual time trials. At his best, he has no discernible weaknesses.

Vincenzo Nibali

In his ‘home’ race Nibali (9/2) is the best all-round threat to Contador. He finished third last year while riding in service of Basso, but spent three days in the maglia rosa and took a fine solo win in Asolo after breaking free on the descent from Monte Grappa. As Liquigas‘s team leader at the Vuelta, he went on to take his first Grand Tour win last September, underlining his pedigree and consistency. While riding well, he has had a quieter start to this season, placing fifth at Tirreno-Adriatico and finishing in the top ten at both Milan-San Remo and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

Nibali lacks the ability to launch the big attacks on the harshest gradients but is nonetheless both an excellent climber and descender, and will also feature strongly in the time trials. On paper, his Liquigas-Cannondale squad looks superior to Contador’s Saxo Bank-Sungard line-up, and Nibali will most likely emerge with a useful advantage from the opening team time trial. If the Spaniard fears any other rider, it will be him.

Waiting in the wings

Denis Menchov

For me, the top two are a sizeable but not insurmountable distance ahead of the chasing pack. But should one of them suffer a dip in form or a badly timed mechanical problem, there are five prominent riders capable of taking advantage.

Possibly the best placed is Denis Menchov (12/1, fourth favourite). The Geox-TMC team leader’s Grand Tour record is second only to Contador among current riders, having previously won both the Giro (2009) and Vuelta (2005 & 2007), and finished third twice at the Tour. His season so far has been fairly low profile – third at the Vuelta a Murcia behind Contador – which is very much in keeping with a style which is largely defensive in the high mountains and relies on a combination of consistency and strong time-trialling to ride stealthily to success. His key weaknesses are an inability to attack on the climbs and a tendency to be involved in crashes. His 2009 Giro win was almost lost at the death when he came off his bike on slippery cobbles outside the Colosseum in the final kilometre of the final stage time trial.

Roman Kreuziger

The next best all-round rider is probably Astana‘s Roman Kreuziger (25/1), who is making his Giro debut. A talented young rider – he turns 25 today – who has spent the last few years riding in the shadow of Basso and Nibali, the Giro marks his first Grand Tour as a team leader. A good climber and a strong time-trialist, he has the potential to take the step up to lead a GC challenge over the course of three weeks, but has yet to prove it. A relatively weak Astana team won’t help either. His best Grand Tour results to date are a pair of ninth-place finishes at the Tour. So far this season he has won a stage and the mountains classification at the recent Giro del Trentino, and was fourth at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. In reality, a top-five finish would be an excellent result for the young Czech.

Igor Antón

Euskaltel-Euskadi‘s Igor Antón (16/1) has shown early form in the Vuelta Ciclista a Castilla y León (where he finished third) and the one-day classic Flèche Wallonne (fifth), as he seeks to overcome the disappointment of crashing out of the lead of last year’s Vuelta, where he had won two stages. A punchy climber who is also strong in the time trials, he has never finished higher than 83rd at the Giro. He is certainly capable of a high placing, although his ability to endure to the end of a three-week race – where the Giro is at its toughest – remains a question mark. And he is likely to start the race on the back foot, as Euskaltel are historically weak performers in team time trials.

Joaquim Rodríguez

The other two top contenders are pure climbers who have a distinct weakness when it comes to individual time trials. Katusha‘s Joaquim Rodríguez (18/1) is a fantastic climber who finished eighth at the Tour and fourth at the Vuelta last year, but threw away his hopes of a win in Spain after losing at least four minutes to most of his main rivals with a catastrophic performance in the individual time trial. He does, however, bring great form to the Giro, having been bested only by the unstoppable Philippe Gilbert at Amstel Gold and Flèche Wallonne last month and won a stage of the Tour of the Basque Country.

Michele Scarponi

And Lampre-ISD‘s Michele Scarponi (6/1, second favourite) has been even better – winning the Giro del Trentino, second (behind Contador) at the Volta a Catalunya and third at Tirreno-Adriatico – but is also vulnerable against the clock.

Both Rodríguez and Scarponi are capable of taking large chunks of time out of other contenders in the mountains, but they will also be closely marked and both can expect to lose 1½ minutes or more in the final stage time trial. The overall win is probably beyond them, but a podium place is a definite prospect.

The rank outsiders

Beyond the top seven, it is difficult to make a case for anyone else seriously threatening the podium. Domenico Pozzovivo (who finished ninth in 2008) and José Rujano are strong climbers in relatively weak wild-card teams (Colnago-CSF Inox and Androni Giocattoli respectively). RadioShack‘s Tiago Macado has good current form but no pedigree in three-week Grand Tours. All three are rightly ranked as 50/1 outsiders.

2007 winner Danilo di Luca has the pedigree but is still rehabilitating himself back into the sport after his doping ban and will not be given free rein unless Katusha teammate Rodríguez falters. Rujano’s Androni Giocattoli teammate Emanuele Sella (80/1) won four stages and finished in the top 12 four times between 2004 and 2008, but has done little of note since. Sky‘s Thomas Lövkvist (200/1) is a strong time-trialist but no more than a competent climber. Carlos Sastre (100/1) finished eighth at both the Giro and the Vuelta last year and is a reasonable long-shot for the podium, but a repeat of his 2008 Tour triumph now looks well beyond the 36-year old and he will ride primarily to support Menchov. Finally David Arroyo (100/1) will be supported by a very strong Movistar squad and was runner-up to Basso last year courtesy of an early breakaway, but lacks consistency and is probably best considered as a potential stage winner rather than a podium contender.

Giro d’Italia preview

Teams & sponsors (part 1)

Teams & sponsors (part 2)

Five key stages

Link: Giro d’Italia official website, Steephill.tv

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Barredo and Nieve pick up the crumbs as Rodriguez eyes the biggest prize

September 14, 2010 Leave a comment

After the drama of stage 14, when Igor Antón crashed out of the race lead, the Vuelta a España welcomed two new faces to its storied ranks of stage winners. Meanwhile, the battle for the red jersey kicked into high gear, with the race lead changing hands on the slopes of the Alto de Cotobello, which was making its Vuelta debut.

With just five racing days remaining, including the individual time trial and one last monster climb on the penultimate day, the outcome remains very much in doubt, with less than a minute separating the top three, and less than five minutes separating first from tenth.

Stage 15: Solares > Lagos de Covadonga

Quick Step‘s Carlos Barredo, one of the most attacking riders in the professional peloton,  finally added a Grand Tour stage win to a palmarès which already includes a stage of Paris-Nice and the 2009 Clásica de San Sebastián, courtesy of a committed solo attack in difficult wet conditions at Lagos de Covadonga.

Stage 15 winner Carlos Barredo

Featuring a flat route leading to the iconic climb of the Covadonga, this stage was always likely to favour a successful breakaway, particularly with the leaders looking to conserve energy for the following day. Consequently, the day’s six-man break of Barredo, Nico Sijmens, Pierre Cazaux, Olivier Kaisen, Greg Van Avermaet and Martin Velits reached the start of the 12.5 km ascent with a seven-minute advantage over a largely disinterested peloton.

After Martin Velits attempted an early attack on the lower slopes Barredo, the strongest climber in the group, quickly reeled him in and continued on up the road, leaving the rest to fend for themselves in the rain and mist.

In the main pack, Liquigas assumed control from Xacobeo Galicia to protect new red jersey Vincenzo Nibali. Carlos Sastre and Ezequiel Mosquera attacked, but were quickly chased down. Mosquera subsequently attacked again and managed to escape, but would eventually gain just 11 seconds as Nibali and Joaquim Rodriguez, his closest rival, finished together 2:26 down on Barredo. Peter Velits finished with them to move up to fourth overall. The day’s big loser was Xavier Tondó, who finished 1:40 behind Nibali and dropped to fifth.

Barredo, who comes from nearby Oviedo, was overjoyed to win on ‘home’ territory:

It’s a great joy to win at home. I was born in Gijon and I’ve lived 30 kilometres away from the stage finish here. I got my first road bike as the result of a bet I made with my father, who told me that if I could ride from our house to Lagos de Covadonga and back on my mountain bike, he’d buy me a road bike. Today, so many years later, I’ve won here. That’s why today is the greatest win of my career from a sentimental point of view.

Nibali, who remains in the overall lead by four seconds, was grateful for the hard work put in by his team:

I only looked at saving my leadership. My team did a great job of that. They rode on the front from the start till the bottom of the climb; Oliver Zaugg and Roman Kreuziger did the final part. Roman did the maximum effort at the right time. He’s been brilliant.

Stage 15 result:

1. Carlos Barredo (Quick Step) 4:32:09

2. Nico Sijmens (Cofidis) +1:07

3. Martin Velits (HTC-Columbia0 +1:43

4. Greg Van Avermaet (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +2:06

5. Pierre Cazaux (FDJ) +2:10

Stage 16: Gijón > Cotobello

Stage 16 winner Mikel Nieve

Mikel Nieve secured his first win as a pro, riding solo to become the Vuelta’s first ever winner at the summit of the new climb of the Alto de Cotobello. Behind him, some brave attacking riding by Fränk Schleck distressed all the leaders, resulting in Vincenzo Nibali losing the red jersey to Joaquim Rodriguez.

With a pair of first category climbs – the Puerto de San Lorenzo and the Alto de la Cobertoria – to negotiate before the final ascent of the beyond-category Cotobello, the peloton was braced for a tough and nervy day’s racing, with the Liquigas team of race leader Vincenzo Nibali always likely to come under pressure from multiple attacks.

After some early unsuccessful breaks, a decisive ten-man escape featuring Caisse d’Epargne‘s Luis León Sánchez and also Euskaltel-Euskadi‘s Juan José Oroz was finally established after the initial third-category climb of Alto de Cabrunana. They built up a lead of around four minutes before starting to fragment on the slopes of the San Lorenzo.

At this point Nieve and teammate Amets Txurruka jumped clear of the peloton in an attempt to make the junction to the lead group, with Oroz dropping back to assist them. The three-man Euskaltel-Euskadi group yo-yoed backwards and forwards in no man’s land between the breakaway and the peloton for several kilometres before their determination finally paid off and they latched on to the leaders.

Saxo Bank moved to the front of the peloton on the lower slopes of the Cobertoria with just under 50 km to go. Fabian Cancellara did a massive turn on the front, thinning the red jersey group down to around 20-25 riders, setting up Schleck to attack near the summit of the climb. With Liquigas unwilling to burn themselves out in the chase, Schleck briefly looked like he might get away, but he eventually dropped back and reintegrated with the group.

Averaging 8.2% over its ten kilometre length, the Cotobello is a steep but relatively steady climb, favouring steady, tempo climbers rather than more explosive ones. The remnants of the breakaway arrived at its foot with an advantage of  2:45 over Nibali’s group, and Nieve quickly set about establishing a consistent pace which no one else could live with.

Behind him, Schleck was quickly back on the attack, cranking up the tempo and immediately putting the likes of Xavier Tondó and Rubén Plaza into the red zone. Garmin-Transitions‘ Tom Danielson was the only rider to go with the Luxemburger, and the pair gradually established a gap of between 10 and 15 seconds, with Roman Kreuziger towing teammate Nibali and a select GC group including Ezequiel Mosquera and Nicolas Roche along at the front.

Joaquim Rodriguez claimed the overall lead by 33 seconds

From the back of this group, Carlos Sastre launched a counter-attack of his own, quickly leaping across the gap to Schleck and Danielson and then surging past them, forcing the pair to give chase. Sastre tried to attack again, but Schleck was equal to the challenge, catching and then riding steadily away from him with an impressive effort which he sustained all the way to the finish. He passed the remaining stragglers from the breakaway to claim second – overtaking Quick Step’s Kevin de Weert 70 metres from home – 1:06 behind Nieve but nearly a minute ahead of Nibali, and claiming a valuable 12 bonus seconds as well.

In the red jersey group behind, Kreuziger finally blew after a sterling effort, setting the scene for a series of attacks to which Nibali was unable to respond. Rodriguez, Mosquera and Roche all went clear, with Rodriguez taking 37 seconds out of Nibali to become the new race leader by 33 seconds.

Nieve was delighted to win on a stage he had reconnoitred in advance of the race, and dedicated his win to Igor Antón, who had crashed out of the race while in the red jersey two days previously:

Everything went perfect today. I dedicate this to my team and to Igor Antón. We were doing a great job, working for Antón to win this Vuelta.

After Igor’s crash we felt it was the end of the world. Our sports directors told us we had to get through Sunday’s stage and put our minds back in the race before fighting again. I knew the climb to Cotobello, I had done it at training in August with Igor and Samuel Sanchez. It helped me a lot today. The encouragements of the crowd and above all my sports directors helped me forget the suffering.

Schleck has ridden himself back into form over the first two weeks of the race following his Tour de France crash, and was only mildly disappointed to have missed out on the stage win here:

I tried to attack and I’ve succeeded. Unfortunately there was one rider who remained ahead and he was too far to be caught. I would have liked the stage win but I’ve regained some time over all the other GC contenders, so it’s a positive day.

Despite claiming the red jersey, Rodriguez admitted he faces a huge battle to keep it all the way to Madrid:

My lead (33 seconds) over Nibali on GC isn’t big enough before the time trial at Peñafiel. Nibali is a great time triallist; he’s better than me. Ezequiel Mosquera isn’t a bad time triallist. I’ll have to ride the best time trial of my life. If I limit my loss [in the time trial] to one and a half or two minutes, it could work. Every second will count before the last mountain stage [on Saturday]. The hills of Bola del Mundo are very steep.

Nieve’s fine solo win leapfrogged him up to 11th overall. Mosquera is third, 53 seconds behind Rodriguez, with Schleck and Roche jumping up to fourth and fifth, respectively 2:16 and 3:01 behind. Schleck certainly has a chance of claiming a podium place, although the red jersey is probably now beyond him, but with the individual time trial and the 22 km beyond-category climb of Bola del Mundo on the penultimate stage still to come, he has an outside chance of one final shot at glory.

King of the Mountains leader David Moncoutié claimed the three points on offer for leading over the first third-category climb of the day, consolidating what looks increasingly like an impregnable ten-point lead over Serafín Martínez in the climbers’ competition.

The second rest day today affords the riders a much-needed opportunity to recharge the batteries before tomorrow’s 46 km time trial around Peñafiel, after which there are just four stages remaining. The race remains tight, and one mistake or moment of inspiration could yet make all the difference.

Stage 16 result:

1. Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel-Eusakdi) 4:51:59

2. Fränk Schleck (Saxo Bank) +1:06

3. Kevin de Weert (Quick Step) +1:08

4. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) + 1:22

5. Luis León Sánchez (Caisse d’Epargne) +1:32

General classification:

1. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) 70:24:39

2. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) +0:33

3. Ezequiel Mosquera (Xacobeo Galicia) +0:53

4. Fränk Schleck (Saxo Bank) +2:16

5. Nicolas Roche (AG2R-La Mondiale) +3:01

6. Peter Velits (HTC-Columbia) +4:27

8. Tom Danielson (Garmin-Transitions) +4:29

9. Xavier Tondó (Cervelo) +4:43

10. Carlos Sastre (Cervelo) +4:53

Points classification:

1. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Columbia) 111 pts

2. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) 93

3. Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Transitions) 90

4. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 88

5. David Moncoutié (Cofidis) 72

Mountains classification:

1. David Moncoutié (Cofidis) 48 pts

2. Serafín Martínez (Xacobeo Galicia) 38

3. Luis León Sánchez (Caisse d’Epargne) 25

4. Gonzalo Rabuñal (Xacobeo Galicia) 25

5. Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel-Eusakdi) 21

For up-to-the-minute news, results and analysis of the race, visit either the official Vuelta website or the always excellent steephill.tv.

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Tour de France week 1 review: The good, the bad and the ugly

July 12, 2010 11 Comments

It may be the first rest day at the Tour de France, but as the saying goes there is no rest for the wicked blogger. After all, if the riders’ idea of a ‘rest’ day is to only go out for a two or three-hour ride, who am I to ease off? So, here are my (mostly serious) thoughts looking back on an eventful opening week of the 2010 Tour, and a couple of quick predictions for the coming days. Let me know if you agree or disagree!

Current yellow jersey Cadel Evans (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

Biggest winner: Cadel Evans. Despite his BMC team apparently suffering from a distinct fear of heights every time the road starts pointing skywards, Evans finds himself in the yellow jersey after yesterday’s thrilling stage to Morzine-Avoriaz. He will struggle not to lose time on the big summit finishes in the Pyrenees but will fancy his chances if he is still within touching distance of the race lead going into stage 19′s individual time trial. His immediate challenge is to find a way to give up the yellow jersey to a minor name without conceding chunks of time to his biggest rivals, but he is looking a strong bet to make the Paris podium. The question is: which step?

Lance Armstrong (image courtesy of Velocia)

Biggest loser: Lance Armstrong. Now over 13 minutes down on the race lead, Armstrong’s challenge died yesterday after he was caught up in three separate accidents – a decade’s worth of bad luck all in one day. What he does next will be one of the most interesting sub-plots of the next two weeks. Will he support friend and RadioShack teammate Levi Leipheimer in the Pyrenees to make a challenge for the yellow jersey? Or will he seek one final, glorious stage win for himself? Whatever happens, don’t expect him to just soft-pedal in the anonymity of the peloton: this is Lance Armstrong we’re talking about here, and Lance does not do anonymous.

Walked under a ladder while walking on the cracks in the pavements, breaking a mirror and other bad stuff: Christian Vande Velde of Garmin-Transitions. Stage two: crashed, fractured two ribs. May 2010: crashed and broke his clavicle at the Giro d’Italia. May 2009: crashed and fractured two ribs at the Giro. Need I say more? If there’s an accident, odds are Vande Velde is not too far away. He is surely the unluckiest man in the peloton.

Runner-up: Lance Armstrong. I wonder if Vande Velde somehow transferred his bad karma to Lance – who has said some less than complimentary things about him in the past – before departing the Tour? I’m just saying.

Jurgen van den Broeck

Biggest surprise: Jurgen van den Broeck. Fourth overall (1:03 down on Evans), the Omega Pharma-Lotto team leader has flown in under many people’s radar (mine included) to establish himself as a genuine contender. Yesterday, he finished comfortably in the Contador/Evans/Leipheimer group. A dark horse, albeit one who may not stay the distance.

Garmin-Transitions’ Ryder Hesjedal (6th, 1:11 down on Evans) has also done brilliantly, stepping into the team leader’s role vacated by the injured Vande Velde.

Making quiet progress: Denis Menchov (5th), Roman Kreuziger (7th), Levi Leipheimer (8th). Almost invisibly, these three extremely capable riders are right on the coat-tails of the leaders. Leipheimer is now RadioShack’s de facto number one after Armstrong’s bad day. Kreuziger may soon take precedence over Ivan Basso in Liquigas‘s priorities. And Menchov has already crashed 916 fewer times than he had at the same point in last year’s Tour. (Okay, I’m exaggerating: it’s actually 816 fewer.) Menchov and Leipheimer may be difficult to spot as they ride in the wheels of others; you can’t miss Kreuziger because of Liquigas’s bright green kit.

Roman Kreuziger

Stuck in the shadows: Robert Gesink and Roman Kreuziger. Gesink is 11th, 1:27 behind Rabobank teammate Menchov and 2:37 behind Evans, and is likely to remain stuck in the shadows unless Menchov blows up. Kreuizger is just 56 seconds ahead of Giro winner Ivan Basso, and it is hard to see Liquigas throwing their lot behind him unless Basso drops off the pace, by which time Kreuziger’s chances of a podium finish may be terminally compromised. Decisions, decisions.

Handbags at dawn: After the concluding sprint on stage six, Quick Step‘s Carlos Barredo and Caisse d’Epargne‘s Rui Costa had an, er, difference of opinion when the latter caused a touch of handlebars on the final run-in. After crossing the finishing line, Barredo attempted to club him with his own front wheel, initiating something that vaguely represented a fist-fight. Neither is likely to be called upon to fight in Vegas for the delectation of a pay-per-view audience any time soon.

Sylvain Chavanel

Heart-warming story: Sylvain Chavanel. In April, he fractured his skull when he ran into the back of a team car during Liège-Bastogne-Liège. On stage two into Spa, on a course which covered some of the same roads used in that race, Chavanel claimed a solo breakaway win and the yellow jersey, aided in no small part by the peloton staging a go-slow protest after several crashes. He then lost the lead in heart-breaking fashion the following day after a series of mechanical problems on cobbled roads. But, in true Hollywood style, he then reclaimed the yellow jersey with a gutsy solo ride to Station des Rousses on stage seven, a win which required no external assistance.

France has a new hero which, in the absence of a genuine yellow jersey contender, means that no one is going to steal Chavanel’s thunder, and he will be able to dine out on his 2010 Tour experiences for years to come. Good on him.

Rafael Valls Ferri, sporting Footon-Servetto's funky gold kit

Best new team: Footon-Servetto. I was going to say Sky in my partisan British way, who for much of the first week had their own fairy-tale story in Geraint Thomas, second overall at one stage was second overall and in the white jersey as best young rider. But the fledgling Footon-Servetto team, comprising nine Tour first-timers and sponsored by the unlikely combination of a US bike manufacturer and an Italian wardrobe company, have won me over. Rafael Valls Ferri has given the sponsors valuable camera time on the climbing stages so far, and their funky gold-with-black-footprint racing kit adds an eye-catching splash of colour to a peloton which could hardly be called monochrome already.

Mark Cavendish

Going up?: Mark Cavendish. 65 points behind a rampant Thor Hushovd in the points competition and in helmet-throwing mood after a crushing defeat by Alessandro Petacchi on stage four, he had closed the gap to 33 within 48 hours after two dominant wins. It’s still a big deficit to make up given the limited number of remaining sprints, but Cavendish has momentum now – and there is no one in the peloton better at using momentum than the Manx Missile.

Going down?: Thor Hushovd. He appeared to be turning the green jersey contest into a one-bike race at one point, but two subdued finishes on stages five (fifth place) and six (tenth) have left me wondering if the collarbone injury he sustained in May is starting to hinder him. If so, it is only going to get worse over the course of a three-week race, which will leave him vulnerable to the now fully-recovered Cavendish and the rapidly-recovering Tyler Farrar.

Jens Voigt

The old man’s award: Jens Voigt. I could easily have given this either of two veteran sprinters, Petacchi and Robbie McEwen, who are (surprisingly) featuring very strongly in the points competition, but I have to go with my sentimental favourite. The German veteran (he turns 39 in two months’ time) with the massive engine (the legal, two-legged variety, not the illegal, motorised one) can often be found setting a furious tempo on the front of the pack, driving himself into the ground for Andy Schleck – and then he comes back for punishment more the next day. He is a joy to watch and an example to younger riders.

Excessive caution award: Fabian Cancellara, who used his position as the yellow jersey to organise a go-slow, neutralising the dangerous final descent on stage two – and, entirely coincidentally, of course, allowing his teammates Andy and Frank Schleck to catch up with the peloton after an earlier crash. I can live with that decision. But why did he then have to neutralise the sprint finish as well, much to the chagrin of Thor Hushovd, most of the sprinters and the thousands gathered at the finish in Spa? While safety concerns are to be generally applauded, this is still a bike race. On this occasion Cancellara didn’t live up to his nickname: less Spartacus, more Toys R Us.

Bravery award: Tour organisers ASO for producing a varied and challenging first week itinerary which has given us the (sadly unfulfilled) potential for disruptive crosswinds (stage one), the tricky hills of the Ardennes classics (stage two) and the cobblestones of Paris-Roubaix (stage three), as well as the usual bunch sprints. You have to wonder how much the difficulty of the opening days contributed to the way the peloton shattered so easily on the last two mountain stages. Certainly it didn’t hurt. The riders complained about the various dangers and challenges and disruption to the smooth natural order of things, so ASO must have been doing something right.

Best stage: Stage three, taking in 13.2 km of the cobbled roads used in the Paris-Roubaix classic. ‘Hell of the North’, indeed. It made for compelling viewing, with something dramatic constantly happening somewhere on the course in the final hour or so. It was the finest flat stage I have ever seen, and one of the best ever, period. More, please!

Damiano Cunego

Two to watch out for in the mountains: 45 minutes down on the leaders, Damiano Cunego should now have carte blanche to slip away in any break he chooses. As a former winner of the Giro, he knows his way up a mountain. Coming down on the longest, fastest descents, look for Linus Gerdemann and his distinctive descending position, sitting down and forward over the frame of his bike to create a profile which is as aerodynamic as it is uncomfortable.

Who’s going to win?: Despite his little wobble yesterday, it’s still Alberto Contador for me, with Andy Schleck second and Cadel Evans third.

Who’s going to disappoint?: Bradley Wiggins, who looked alarmingly short of legs yesterday, and still has to face more tough climbs in the Pyrenees than he did in finishing fourth last year. Top ten, at best.

Menchov will probably fall off his bike on a descent somewhere. Van den Broeck will be blown out of the back of the elite group in the Pyrenees (but he won’t be alone in that). And Leipheimer will be good, but not quite good enough, which seems to be the story of his career (four top-five finishes in Grand Tours, but no wins).

Those are my guesses, anyway. If you want accurate prognostications, go consult Paul the Octopus.

Back to the racing tomorrow and the Col de la Madeleine. I’m smiling at the prospect already …

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Alps preview: 20 riders to watch

July 10, 2010 2 Comments

It has been a relatively quiet first week in the Tour de France for the both the yellow jersey and polka dot jersey contenders, as the sprinters have taken centre stage. All that is about to change though, as the race enters the Alps today.

From both a GC and a King of the Mountains perspective, here is my selection of 20 key men to keep an eye on, and what I think they will do from a tactical perspective over the next four stages. (Please note that these are the views of an enthusiastic fan who in no way claims to be an expert. So think twice before remortgaging your house …)

I have used third-placed Cadel Evans as my reference point for timings, as neither of the top two (Fabian Cancellara and Geraint Thomas) are regarded as contenders for either the yellow or polka dot jerseys. You can be sure than Contador, Schleck and the other big guns will be doing likewise. So, in order of current position in the general classification, here goes:

Geraint Thomas

Geraint Thomas (Sky)

Current position: 2nd overall, 0:20 behind Cancellara and 0:169 ahead of Evans.

Objective: Support Bradley Wiggins.

Tactical analysis: Thomas’s ability in the mountains is an unknown quantity – this is only his second Tour – and he will probably struggle to keep up with the yellow jersey group, but from a British perspective it will be an interesting marker for the future to see how well he goes here in the Alps. His primary role will be to generally support team leader Wiggins and do as well as he can for himself, but don’t expect him to be slugging it out for the stage win on the slopes of Morzine. However, he will be encouraged by the possibility of taking over the yellow jersey from Cancellara today, even if it is only for one day.

Cadel Evans

Cadel Evans (BMC)

Current position: 3rd overall, 0:39 behind Cancellara and 0:19 behind Thomas.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: ‘Cuddles’ is showing signs of replicating his strong form at May’s Giro and is currently the best placed of the GC contenders. He is likely to watch and wait here, saving his big efforts for the Pyrenees and the final time trial. Although he may lose a bit of time if Contador or Schleck accelerate hard on the final climbs, he should be able to keep his losses to a minimum to leave himself in good shape.

Andy Schleck

Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank)

Current position: 6th, 0:30 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Schleck does not need to attack in the Alps, but he will be hoping he can eke out half a minute or more on his rivals if he can with a well-timed acceleration close to a summit finish. If he is going to attack anywhere, expect it to be in the closing kilometres of the Morzine climb, where the gradient suddenly increases.

Alexandre Vinokourov

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

Current position: 8th, 0:52 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Alberto Contador, high position in GC.

Tactical analysis: It’s still not entirely clear whether Vinokourov harbours any hopes of wresting control of Astana from Contador, but expect him to behave himself for the moment and support Contador if needed, without sacrificing his own GC hopes. A planned solo attack on the long descent from the Madeleine on stage nine is not out of the question; it’s exactly the sort of kamikaze move the Vino of old would make, but chances are he will follow team orders and act dutifully as Contador’s wing-man for now. But if Contador has any kind of problem, watch out.

Defending champion Alberto Contador

Alberto Contador (Astana)

Current position: 9th, 1:01 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Contador will expect support from Vinokourov, but will probably not need it. After a good result over the stage three cobbles, he does not need to attack in the Alps, but like Schleck he will probably choose to attack on Morzine – as he did at Verbier last year – to make a statement and test the legs of his closest rivals.

Jurgen van den Broeck

Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Current position: 10th, 1:03 behind Evans.

Objective: GC, possibly King of the Mountains (KoM).

Tactical analysis: Van den Broeck is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He lacks the acceleration and top-end power to force his way clear, and is is too high up on GC to be allowed to escape if he attacks. For now, he will probably ride relatively conservatively to consolidate his top-ten position, and ensure he picks up enough points on the summits to enable a switch of focus to the polka dot jersey if he cannot live with the pace of the top men.

Denis Menchov

Denis Menchov (Rabobank)

Current position: 13th, 1:10 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Menchov has not yet had any of the mishaps which so often seem to befall him at the Tour, and he will be quietly satisfied with his progress so far. He will probably elect to follow wheels for now, saving his legs for the Pyrenees and knowing that he is capable of producing an excellent time trial.

Bradley Wiggins

Bradley Wiggins (Sky)

Current position: 14th, 1:10 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: Wiggins eased himself back into contention by finishing stage three in the Contador group, after a disastrous gamble with an early start time cost him in the prologue. Like Menchov, he will ride defensively and look to build his climbing form – he has yet to prove he can ride away from leading contenders on steep climbs – ahead of the Pyrenees and the individual time trial, which is probably his best chance of gaining time on Contador and Schleck.

Roman Kreuziger

Roman Kreuziger (Liquigas-Doimo)

Current position: 16th, 1:45 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Ivan Basso, high position in GC.

Tactical analysis: Despite currently occupying a higher position on GC than his team leader, Kreuziger’s primary brief for now will be to support Basso. Liquigas will probably hedge their bets with both riders for the moment, though, until it is clear whether Basso can replicate his Giro-winning form and become a genuine podium threat. If not, the team may free up Kreuziger to ride his own race – but don’t expect that to happen until the Pyrenees. A watching brief for now.

Lance Armstrong

Lance Armstrong (RadioShack)

Current position: 18th, 1:51 behind Evans.

Objective: GC.

Tactical analysis: An untimely puncture over the cobblestones cost Armstrong dearly on Tuesday, and he now finds himself in a position where he – more than almost any other leading rider – needs to attack in an attempt to reduce his deficit. He appears to lack the acceleration he formerly possessed, so a late charge on Morzine is unlikely, but look for a more sustained attack earlier on a climb in the hope of catching some of his rivals by surprise – possibly even this afternoon’s ascent to Station des Rousses or, if he is feeling brave, the descent from the Madeleine on Tuesday.

Levi Leipheimer

Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack)

Current position: 24th, 2:14 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Lance Armstrong, high position in GC.

Tactical analysis: Leipheimer’s ambitions will be restricted by the imperative to support Armstrong, but expect RadioShack to come up with a strategy which does not sacrifice his position completely should his leader falter. He is not the most aggressive climber but, like Wiggins and Menchov, will probably aim to stay in touch and throw everything into the time trial.

Samuel Sánchez

Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

Current position: 31st, 2:25 behind Evans.

Objective: GC, possibly KoM and stage wins (although will probably prioritise the Pyrenees over the Alps).

Tactical analysis: Do not be surprised if Sánchez and teammate Egoi Martínez form a two-pronged attack to try to crack the leading group of riders, possibly on the long climb of the Madeleine. Stage wins or the polka dot jersey may also be a target. They will probably prioritise the Pyrenees for those in front of the cycling-mad Basque fans, but don’t be surprised if one or both of them get into an escape group on stage seven, nine or ten, all of which offer opportunities for a breakaway win.

Robert Gesink

Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

Current position: 42nd, 2:37 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Denis Menchov, possibly KoM and stage wins.

Tactical analysis: Given his questionable descending ability and mediocre time-trialling, Gesink is already too far behind to mount a realistic podium challenge. He will be asked to support Menchov and possibly be given the opportunity to go for a stage win somewhere along the line.

Carlos Sastre

Carlos Sastre (Cervelo)

Current position: 46th, 2:40 behind Evans.

Objective: A decent GC finish, and maybe a stage win.

Tactical analysis: Sastre looks a shadow of the man who won the 2008 Tour. A good climber with a tendency to struggle on the early part of steep ascents, he may be better suited to this year’s Alpine stages than the Pyrenean ones to come. He is probably now considered to be a minor enough threat to be allowed a solo break over the next four days, and a stage win would represent a good return after what has been a disappointing first week.

Ivan Basso

Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Doimo)

Current position: 47th, 2:41 behind Evans.

Objective: GC, possibly KoM and stage wins.

Tactical analysis: Basso has been poor so far, losing big chunks of time in both the prologue and the cobbles of stage three. He  is already in a position where, if he wants a high finish in the GC, he needs a big, successful attack. He may choose to leave his effort until the Pyrenees, however, where the biggest potential gains are. It is also possible Liquigas may switch his focus towards stage wins and King of the Mountains, although it is probably too early for that just yet.

John Gadret

John Gadret (AG2R)

Current position: 55th, 2:51 behind Evans.

Objective: KoM, stage wins.

Tactical analysis: He is no threat to the yellow jersey contenders, so will have a relatively free hand to escape in breakaways to pursue stage wins and KoM points. May attempt to fulfil both objectives with a well-timed attack on stage nine over the hors catégorie Col de la Madeleine.

Egoi Martínez

Egoi Martínez (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

Current position: 68th, 3:07 behind Evans.

Objective: KoM, stage wins (although will probably prioritise the Pyrenees over the Alps).

Tactical analysis: See Samuel Sánchez.

Jens Voigt

Jens Voigt (Saxo Bank)

Current position: 147th, 18:46 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Andy Schleck, drive as hard as he can until he drops.

Tactical analysis: One of the oldest men in the field (he is 39 in September, the day before Lance Armstrong), no one works harder for his team than Voigt. You will undoubtedly see him at the front of the yellow jersey group – or possibly dropping back from an escape group to help out – over the next four days. His task will be to set a punishing tempo on the lower slopes of the final climb of the day, preventing attacks and acting as the springboard for Andy Schleck. You will see him hanging over his bars, eyes bulging, tongue hanging out, for as long as his body holds out. And then, job done, he will slide down the field and come back for more of the same the next day. I am an unabashed Mark Cavendish fan, but Voigt is my second favourite rider in the entire peloton. Watch the old man at work – they don’t make many like him.

Damiano Cunego

Damiano Cunego (Lampre)

Current position: 166th, 22:32 behind Evans.

Objective: KoM, stage wins.

Tactical analysis: Way down the overall classification after an earlier crash, this will give Cunego the freedom to attack at will in the mountains, knowing he is no threat to the GC men. Expect him to feature frequently in breakaways, make solo attacks, in fact anything that gives him a sniff of a stage win or some serious mountains points.

Matthew Lloyd

Matthew Lloyd (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Current position: 170th, 25:57 behind Evans.

Objective: Support Jurgen van den Broeck, possiblyKoM.

Tactical analysis: Lloyd’s primary aim for the moment is to support and protect teammate van den Broeck, but do not be surprised if he is inserted into a break – particularly on stage nine, where there are KoM points aplenty – to maximise Lotto’s tactical options and put him in a position where he can always drop back to assist van den Broeck.

For a guide to the four Alpine stages (7-10), please check out my preview here.

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Gesink in yellow as riders reveal form at Tour de Suisse

June 18, 2010 Leave a comment

Stage 6 winner Robert Gesink (image courtesy of mnorri)

Yesterday was the Tour de Suisse‘s one big climbing stage. But what a day it was, covering two hors catégorie and one category 1 mountain totalling 4,761 metres’ worth of climbing. The stage was won by Rabobank‘s Robert Gesink, who rode away on his own on the upper slopes of the Albulapass and maintained his advantage on the 10 km descent to the finish at La Punt to take over the leader’s yellow jersey. Lance Armstrong and Frank Schleck were among a select group who finished 42 seconds behind, on a day when we finally got a clear indication of the climbing form of many of the key contenders for the Tour de France, which starts in just over two weeks’ time.

Overnight leader Tony Martin was quickly dropped on the lower slopes of the final climb. He would finish over two minutes down, sliding to 14th overall.

The first concerted attack from one of the major players came from Andy Schleck, who put down a savage acceleration of the type of which perhaps only he and Alberto Contador are capable, quickly distancing the others in what at first appeared to be a decisive move. However, his pace would slow just as Gesink decided to try to bridge the gap to him. The Dutchman’s gradual acceleration slowly wheeled Schleck in, and then with the sniff of victory in his nostrils he cranked it up again, putting in a second effort which surprisingly left Schleck unable to respond. Brother Frank was next to have a go, briefly pulling clear before eventually falling back into the clutches of a small group containing Armstrong which had opted to maintain a steady pace and wait for the race to come back to them, but not his RadioShack teammates Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden, who fell away but were able to minimise their losses at the end.

Gesink, however, would not be caught, cresting the Albulapass summit  alone and riding to a richly deserved victory.

After the stage, Armstrong underplayed his Tour chances, but was clearly pleased with the state of his team:

I don’t think any of us [himself, Leipheimer and Klöden] will be favourites for the Tour de France, but between the three of us you never know what can happen. We will have a strong team.

In addition, he also pronounced himself happy with his own form:

It was a very hard day, but I’m pleased with my performance.

Overall, it was an intriguing stage. Frank Schleck looked in good but not quite top shape, perfect with a view to hitting his peak as the Tour hits the Pyrenees in just over four weeks’ time. His brother has plenty of pace on tap but appears to lack a fraction in stamina – again, not a bad place to be. Armstrong lacks the explosiveness of old, but there is still clearly plenty of life in the veteran’s legs, and he will be encouraged to have outlasted his two senior teammates, both of whom will need to find that extra 5-10%  between now and the Tour.

To that list of contenders to Contador’s crown (and those such as Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins who are absent this week), we must now also add Gesink. Time-trialling is not a noted strength of his – despite his 29-second overall lead, he will not be assured of holding on to the race lead in Sunday’s closing 27 km time trial – but if he is able to maintain yesterday’s form in the Alps and Pyrenees, he will be in the mix. So too Roman Kreuziger, who is strong against the stopwatch and will most likely be joined in France by Ivan Basso and Vincenzo Nibali, first and third respectively at last month’s Giro d’Italia.

On a more parochial note, Mark Cavendish did not start the stage. The previous day, riders from three teams who lost men in the mass crash caused by the British sprinter on Tuesday staged a protest against him. Cavendish’s injuries were not serious, but a decision was made to withdraw from the race and train separately over two major passes to put some much-needed climbing miles into his legs. He will still be present at the start of the Tour, but this is just the latest setback in what has been a compromised preparation for the biggest race of the year.

So, the Tour de Suisse remains in the balance and will not be decided for sure until Sunday. And with Contador, the Schleck brothers and Armstrong showing good form over the past week or so, the battle for the 2010 Tour de France is hotting up nicely too.

General Classification after Stage 6

1. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) 25:18:57

2. Rigoberto Uran (Caisse D’Epargne) @ 0:29

3. Steve Morabito (BMC) @ 0:36

4. Frank Schleck (Saxo Bank) @ 0:38

5. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) @ 0:42

6. Matteo Carrara (Vacansoleil) @ 0:54

7. Lance Armstrong (RadioShack) @0:55

8. Oliver Zaugg (Liquigas) @ 1:01

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