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Barredo and Nieve pick up the crumbs as Rodriguez eyes the biggest prize

September 14, 2010 Leave a comment

After the drama of stage 14, when Igor Antón crashed out of the race lead, the Vuelta a España welcomed two new faces to its storied ranks of stage winners. Meanwhile, the battle for the red jersey kicked into high gear, with the race lead changing hands on the slopes of the Alto de Cotobello, which was making its Vuelta debut.

With just five racing days remaining, including the individual time trial and one last monster climb on the penultimate day, the outcome remains very much in doubt, with less than a minute separating the top three, and less than five minutes separating first from tenth.

Stage 15: Solares > Lagos de Covadonga

Quick Step‘s Carlos Barredo, one of the most attacking riders in the professional peloton,  finally added a Grand Tour stage win to a palmarès which already includes a stage of Paris-Nice and the 2009 Clásica de San Sebastián, courtesy of a committed solo attack in difficult wet conditions at Lagos de Covadonga.

Stage 15 winner Carlos Barredo

Featuring a flat route leading to the iconic climb of the Covadonga, this stage was always likely to favour a successful breakaway, particularly with the leaders looking to conserve energy for the following day. Consequently, the day’s six-man break of Barredo, Nico Sijmens, Pierre Cazaux, Olivier Kaisen, Greg Van Avermaet and Martin Velits reached the start of the 12.5 km ascent with a seven-minute advantage over a largely disinterested peloton.

After Martin Velits attempted an early attack on the lower slopes Barredo, the strongest climber in the group, quickly reeled him in and continued on up the road, leaving the rest to fend for themselves in the rain and mist.

In the main pack, Liquigas assumed control from Xacobeo Galicia to protect new red jersey Vincenzo Nibali. Carlos Sastre and Ezequiel Mosquera attacked, but were quickly chased down. Mosquera subsequently attacked again and managed to escape, but would eventually gain just 11 seconds as Nibali and Joaquim Rodriguez, his closest rival, finished together 2:26 down on Barredo. Peter Velits finished with them to move up to fourth overall. The day’s big loser was Xavier Tondó, who finished 1:40 behind Nibali and dropped to fifth.

Barredo, who comes from nearby Oviedo, was overjoyed to win on ‘home’ territory:

It’s a great joy to win at home. I was born in Gijon and I’ve lived 30 kilometres away from the stage finish here. I got my first road bike as the result of a bet I made with my father, who told me that if I could ride from our house to Lagos de Covadonga and back on my mountain bike, he’d buy me a road bike. Today, so many years later, I’ve won here. That’s why today is the greatest win of my career from a sentimental point of view.

Nibali, who remains in the overall lead by four seconds, was grateful for the hard work put in by his team:

I only looked at saving my leadership. My team did a great job of that. They rode on the front from the start till the bottom of the climb; Oliver Zaugg and Roman Kreuziger did the final part. Roman did the maximum effort at the right time. He’s been brilliant.

Stage 15 result:

1. Carlos Barredo (Quick Step) 4:32:09

2. Nico Sijmens (Cofidis) +1:07

3. Martin Velits (HTC-Columbia0 +1:43

4. Greg Van Avermaet (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +2:06

5. Pierre Cazaux (FDJ) +2:10

Stage 16: Gijón > Cotobello

Stage 16 winner Mikel Nieve

Mikel Nieve secured his first win as a pro, riding solo to become the Vuelta’s first ever winner at the summit of the new climb of the Alto de Cotobello. Behind him, some brave attacking riding by Fränk Schleck distressed all the leaders, resulting in Vincenzo Nibali losing the red jersey to Joaquim Rodriguez.

With a pair of first category climbs – the Puerto de San Lorenzo and the Alto de la Cobertoria – to negotiate before the final ascent of the beyond-category Cotobello, the peloton was braced for a tough and nervy day’s racing, with the Liquigas team of race leader Vincenzo Nibali always likely to come under pressure from multiple attacks.

After some early unsuccessful breaks, a decisive ten-man escape featuring Caisse d’Epargne‘s Luis León Sánchez and also Euskaltel-Euskadi‘s Juan José Oroz was finally established after the initial third-category climb of Alto de Cabrunana. They built up a lead of around four minutes before starting to fragment on the slopes of the San Lorenzo.

At this point Nieve and teammate Amets Txurruka jumped clear of the peloton in an attempt to make the junction to the lead group, with Oroz dropping back to assist them. The three-man Euskaltel-Euskadi group yo-yoed backwards and forwards in no man’s land between the breakaway and the peloton for several kilometres before their determination finally paid off and they latched on to the leaders.

Saxo Bank moved to the front of the peloton on the lower slopes of the Cobertoria with just under 50 km to go. Fabian Cancellara did a massive turn on the front, thinning the red jersey group down to around 20-25 riders, setting up Schleck to attack near the summit of the climb. With Liquigas unwilling to burn themselves out in the chase, Schleck briefly looked like he might get away, but he eventually dropped back and reintegrated with the group.

Averaging 8.2% over its ten kilometre length, the Cotobello is a steep but relatively steady climb, favouring steady, tempo climbers rather than more explosive ones. The remnants of the breakaway arrived at its foot with an advantage of  2:45 over Nibali’s group, and Nieve quickly set about establishing a consistent pace which no one else could live with.

Behind him, Schleck was quickly back on the attack, cranking up the tempo and immediately putting the likes of Xavier Tondó and Rubén Plaza into the red zone. Garmin-Transitions‘ Tom Danielson was the only rider to go with the Luxemburger, and the pair gradually established a gap of between 10 and 15 seconds, with Roman Kreuziger towing teammate Nibali and a select GC group including Ezequiel Mosquera and Nicolas Roche along at the front.

Joaquim Rodriguez claimed the overall lead by 33 seconds

From the back of this group, Carlos Sastre launched a counter-attack of his own, quickly leaping across the gap to Schleck and Danielson and then surging past them, forcing the pair to give chase. Sastre tried to attack again, but Schleck was equal to the challenge, catching and then riding steadily away from him with an impressive effort which he sustained all the way to the finish. He passed the remaining stragglers from the breakaway to claim second – overtaking Quick Step’s Kevin de Weert 70 metres from home – 1:06 behind Nieve but nearly a minute ahead of Nibali, and claiming a valuable 12 bonus seconds as well.

In the red jersey group behind, Kreuziger finally blew after a sterling effort, setting the scene for a series of attacks to which Nibali was unable to respond. Rodriguez, Mosquera and Roche all went clear, with Rodriguez taking 37 seconds out of Nibali to become the new race leader by 33 seconds.

Nieve was delighted to win on a stage he had reconnoitred in advance of the race, and dedicated his win to Igor Antón, who had crashed out of the race while in the red jersey two days previously:

Everything went perfect today. I dedicate this to my team and to Igor Antón. We were doing a great job, working for Antón to win this Vuelta.

After Igor’s crash we felt it was the end of the world. Our sports directors told us we had to get through Sunday’s stage and put our minds back in the race before fighting again. I knew the climb to Cotobello, I had done it at training in August with Igor and Samuel Sanchez. It helped me a lot today. The encouragements of the crowd and above all my sports directors helped me forget the suffering.

Schleck has ridden himself back into form over the first two weeks of the race following his Tour de France crash, and was only mildly disappointed to have missed out on the stage win here:

I tried to attack and I’ve succeeded. Unfortunately there was one rider who remained ahead and he was too far to be caught. I would have liked the stage win but I’ve regained some time over all the other GC contenders, so it’s a positive day.

Despite claiming the red jersey, Rodriguez admitted he faces a huge battle to keep it all the way to Madrid:

My lead (33 seconds) over Nibali on GC isn’t big enough before the time trial at Peñafiel. Nibali is a great time triallist; he’s better than me. Ezequiel Mosquera isn’t a bad time triallist. I’ll have to ride the best time trial of my life. If I limit my loss [in the time trial] to one and a half or two minutes, it could work. Every second will count before the last mountain stage [on Saturday]. The hills of Bola del Mundo are very steep.

Nieve’s fine solo win leapfrogged him up to 11th overall. Mosquera is third, 53 seconds behind Rodriguez, with Schleck and Roche jumping up to fourth and fifth, respectively 2:16 and 3:01 behind. Schleck certainly has a chance of claiming a podium place, although the red jersey is probably now beyond him, but with the individual time trial and the 22 km beyond-category climb of Bola del Mundo on the penultimate stage still to come, he has an outside chance of one final shot at glory.

King of the Mountains leader David Moncoutié claimed the three points on offer for leading over the first third-category climb of the day, consolidating what looks increasingly like an impregnable ten-point lead over Serafín Martínez in the climbers’ competition.

The second rest day today affords the riders a much-needed opportunity to recharge the batteries before tomorrow’s 46 km time trial around Peñafiel, after which there are just four stages remaining. The race remains tight, and one mistake or moment of inspiration could yet make all the difference.

Stage 16 result:

1. Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel-Eusakdi) 4:51:59

2. Fränk Schleck (Saxo Bank) +1:06

3. Kevin de Weert (Quick Step) +1:08

4. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) + 1:22

5. Luis León Sánchez (Caisse d’Epargne) +1:32

General classification:

1. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) 70:24:39

2. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) +0:33

3. Ezequiel Mosquera (Xacobeo Galicia) +0:53

4. Fränk Schleck (Saxo Bank) +2:16

5. Nicolas Roche (AG2R-La Mondiale) +3:01

6. Peter Velits (HTC-Columbia) +4:27

8. Tom Danielson (Garmin-Transitions) +4:29

9. Xavier Tondó (Cervelo) +4:43

10. Carlos Sastre (Cervelo) +4:53

Points classification:

1. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Columbia) 111 pts

2. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) 93

3. Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Transitions) 90

4. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 88

5. David Moncoutié (Cofidis) 72

Mountains classification:

1. David Moncoutié (Cofidis) 48 pts

2. Serafín Martínez (Xacobeo Galicia) 38

3. Luis León Sánchez (Caisse d’Epargne) 25

4. Gonzalo Rabuñal (Xacobeo Galicia) 25

5. Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel-Eusakdi) 21

For up-to-the-minute news, results and analysis of the race, visit either the official Vuelta website or the always excellent steephill.tv.

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Armstrong’s last hurrah is a Pau-faced sprint

July 20, 2010 10 Comments

Stage 16: Bagnères-de-Luchon > Pau (199.5 km)

On a day which packed in four of the Pyrenees’ most legendary climbs – the Peyresourde, the Aspin, the Tourmalet (for the first of two ascents) and finally the Aubisque – Pierrick Rodrigo made it a memorable day for his country, registering the sixth win by a French rider in this year’s Tour de France, the most since 1997. And Lance Armstrong emerged from his slumber in the peloton to treat the town of Pau to one final flourish as he contested a finishing sprint for surely the last time in his illustrious Tour career.

The peloton climbing the Col du Tourmalet (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

Indeed, Pau holds a special significance for Armstrong, even though he has never won a stage here. It was in the town that he and the rest of the Motorola team rolled across the line together ahead of the peloton the day after teammate Fabio Casartelli‘s fatal crash in 1995. And now it is also the town in which he made one final attempt to win a road stage to add to his tally of 22 individual victories at the Tour.

Alas, it was not to be. Having joined the breakaway group of the day, he attempted unsuccessfully to distance himself from the faster sprinters in the escape on the final climbs. Four or five years ago, he would have been capable of doing this, probably with some ease, but today his 39-year old legs lacked that explosive kick on which so many of his Tour triumphs were built. With 15 km to go on the long descent into Pau, as the group were attempting to chase down Carlos Barredo who had sprinted off the front of the break some 30 km before, he admitted to RadioShack directeur sportif Johan Bruyneel that he was feeling tired. And although he did summon up the energy to make a fist of the sprint once Barredo had been caught with just 1,100 metres remaining, he knew with over 100 metres to go that he simply no longer had the legs to even get close, sitting up to roll over the line in sixth position well behind an exultant Fedrigo.

Lance Armstrong - one final attack (image courtesy of Graham Watson)

Nonetheless, it had been a brave, attacking performance by the seven-time champion. At times there were obvious flickers of the fire which has always raged within him. And he went out with his head held high, knowing that he had succumbed in a proper battle, with no quarter given. Pas de cadeaux (‘no gifts’), as he once famously growled.

With the ascent of the category-one Peyresourde beginning at kilometre zero, the attacks had begun as soon as the flag dropped, with just about every climber in the peloton and many others all desperate to establish themselves in a successful break. A group of 18 including Armstrong and several other big climbers soon broke clear. This had thinned out to just 11 by the summit of the day’s second climb, the first-category Aspin, and with riders yo-yoing on and off both the front and back of the yellow jersey group, it all made for a couple of hours of tense and watchful riding by the teams of race leaders Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck.

In the escape group, Sandy Casar made a bold solo attack on the descent of the Aspin, only to be caught and passed by Armstrong on the slopes of the Tourmalet, who in turn was hauled back by Fedrigo and Damiano Cunego and then rejoined by the rest of the group as they caught up. Armstrong then attacked again on the Aubisque, reducing the group once more without ever completely breaking free. It was thrilling stuff from the American, defiant to the end in his refusal to accept defeat. But the effort he had expended on the two hors catégorie climbs sapped his reserves too much to be able to compete seriously in the final sprint – not that this was something he had attempted with much success in the latter stages of his career:

It’s been a while since I sprinted. We knew Fedrigo was the fastest guy [in the sprint]. We tried to catch his wheel, but we were just not quick enough. We tried to win the stage.

He then admitted openly how close he now is to bringing down the curtain on his Tour de France career, and possibly his entire racing career:

Lance Armstrong is over with in about four or five days.

If nothing else, he will hopefully provide us with one or two more killer soundbites before he rides off into the sunset. A Tour without Lance Armstrong is a less lively and entertaining place, and even in adversity this year he has come out with some crackers, perhaps most notably after his disappointing result over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles on stage three:

Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail. Today I was the nail.

Fedrigo collected his third Tour win, summing up his delight on the podium:

It was a very, very beautiful day, one of the best. I can’t say much more.

Stage 16 winner Pierrick Fedrigo

His victory added further garnish to a hugely successful Tour for his Bbox Bouygues Telecom team, with Thomas Voeckler having won yesterday and Anthony Charteau still leading the King of the Mountains classification. However, Charteau’s lead is now under threat from Caisse d’Epargne veteran Christophe Moreau – the oldest man in the race – who was first over both HC climbs to move to within 15 points of the leader. The competition will be decided on Thursday, with the last climb of the entire race being the summit finish on the Tourmalet, so we can expect both riders to be involved in the mix there, with grandstand seats of what may prove to be the decisive Contador v Schleck showdown.

Ultimately, it proved to be a quiet day for the two favourites, who rolled in 6:45 behind the winner as part of a large group headed by Thor Hushovd, who managed to survive over the big climbs to claim six invaluable points at the finish which moves his back ahead of Alessandro Petacchi in the points competition.

Contador and Schleck, meanwhile were reunited on French TV after the podium presentations for a public reconciliation, with both expressing a desire to move on.

Schleck said:

We did speak to each other today. What we all saw yesterday was not something that you want to see in a race, but sometimes things like that do happen. Alberto said to me that it was simply something that’s part of racing. I told him that it’s all fine now. The Tour de France is going to be won by the rider with the best legs, and there is certainly going to be a great battle between the two of us the day after tomorrow.

When asked about whether he had apologised to Schleck, Contador responded:

Yes. I didn’t need to. But we’ve got a very strong friendship and it was for that reason that I wanted to apologise yesterday evening.

And Schleck concluded with the following, before personally requesting for people to stop booing Contador:

I realise that after what happened at Spa the race could already have been over for me. That day the peloton waited for me. Yesterday the situation wasn’t the same, and I realised that I shouldn’t fret about it too much.

So now the jousting is over, and on Thursday we will see how things pan out on the final ascent of the Col du Tourmalet. Realistically, Contador needs only to finish alongside Schleck, who will be looking to take at least a minute and ideally more out of the defending champion. Throw in Denis Menchov and Samuel Sánchez, who are currently squabbling over the final podium step but could still move up higher, and the conclusion of the King of the Mountains competition, and the scene is set for a spectacular final day in the Pyrenees, as befits its centenary anniversary. And once Thursday’s stage has finished it will – quite literally – be all downhill from there.

Especially for Lance Armstrong. He now looks likely to depart without a valedictory stage win, but at least he gave us one final cameo to remember him by. And that’s good enough for me.

———-

Technology permitting, I will be live-blogging Thursday’s critical stage 17 from about 2pm UK time. See you here then.

———-

Stage 16 result:

1. Pierrick Fedrigo (Bbox Bouygues Telecom) 5:31:43

2. Sandy Casar (FDJ) same time

3. Rubén Plaza (Caisse d’Epargne) s/t

4. Damiano Cnego (Lampre) s/t

5. Chris Horner (RadioShack) s/t

General classification (yellow jersey):

1. Alberto Contador (Astana) 78:29:10

2. Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) +0:08

3. Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel-Euskadi) +2:00

4. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +2:13

5. Jurgen van den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto) +3:39

6. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) +5:01

7. Levi Leipheimer (RadioShack) +5:25

8. Joaquín Rodríquez (Katusha) +5:45

9. Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) +7:12

10. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Transitions) +7:51

Selected others:

21. Bradley Wiggins (Sky) +17:44

25. Lance Armstrong (RadioShack) +33:46

Points classification (green jersey):

1. Thor Hushovd (Cervelo) 191 pts

2. Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) 187

3. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Columbia) 162

4. José Joaquín Rojas (Caisse d’Epargne) 149

5. Robbie McEwen (Katusha) 138

Climbers’ classification (polka dot jersey):

1. Anthony Charteau (Bbox Bouygues Telecom) 143 pts

2. Christophe Moreau (Caisse d’Epargne) 128

3. Damiano Cunego (Lampre) 99

4. Sandy Casar (FDJ) 93

5. Jérôme Pineau (Quick Step) 92

Stage 17 preview:

Start & finish: Pau > Col du Tourmalet

Distance & type: 174 km, high mountains

This final Pyrenean stage should decide the battle for the yellow jersey. After the short, sharp shock of the Côte de Renoir (only 2,2km, but 6% gradient) to shake away the cobwebs of the rest day, the riders will face three peaks of increasing difficulty, with the first category climbs of the Col de Marie-Blanque and Col du Soulor both averaging close to 8% slope. But we shouldn’t expect attacks from any of the big guns on any of these three climbs.

The action will be saved for the final climb of the day – and indeed the entire Tour – the second ascent to the summit of the Tourmalet. From this direction, it is 18.6 km at an average gradient of 7.5%. This will be Schleck’s last chance to attack Contador and he will be looking for significant gains, so expect Saxo Bank to be on the attack relatively early. Equally, if any of the other favourites want to make a move up the order, they will have to throw caution to the wind. This final ascent should be the most spectacular hour of the entire Tour, with the elite riders throwing the kitchen sink at each other.

At the end of it, we may well know the winner of the 2010 Tour, and we will definitely know the winner of the polka dot jersey, as there are no further categorised climbs in the race. Back Schleck or Contador to win, but expect attacks from various riders all the way up the mountain as the GC and King of the Mountains shake-outs take place.

For more reviews and informed comments about the Tour de France, please read any (or all!) of the following excellent blogs:

Marc’s sports blog

Todd Kinsey’s TDF blog

SportPH

Cyclingproject365

Richard Tulloch’s Life on the Road

The social cyclist

Gonecycling

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Pyrenees preview: The stages

July 18, 2010 1 Comment

The Tour de France has already spent four days in the mountains of the Jura and the Alps. Those stages contained just one hors catégorie climb, and many of the leading contenders were reluctant to attack for fear of risking and losing everything before the Tour had reached its halfway point. Nonetheless, the race was blown wide open during those four days, with a high tempo and an accumulation of fatigue scuppering the yellow jersey aspirations of all but the top half-dozen riders, and realistically narrowing the field to just two or three.

To commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Tour racing in the Pyrenees, this year’s traverse along the France/Spain border is packed with difficulty. Each day includes at least one HC climb, including two ascents of the giant Col du Tourmalet. There are two summit finishes – at Ax 3 Domaines and on the Tourmalet itself – with the hope being that the final ascent of the Tourmalet will be the decisive showdown of this year’s race.

Here are my thoughts on what to expect from the next four stages, as the 2010 Tour de France approaches its climax.

Stage 14: Revel > Ax 3 Domaines (184.5 km)

The first category climb of Ax 3 Domaines last featured on the Tour in 2005, when it turned out to be a defining stage. Jan Ullrich‘s T-Mobile team successfully isolated Lance Armstrong, only for the American to absorb every attack and then ride away from the big German, gaining over 30 seconds en route to his seventh Tour win.

This year, it comes at the end of the first day in the Pyrenees. It is immediately preceded by the hors catégorie Port de Pailhères, a monster climb with an average gradient of 7.9% over its 15.5 km length, and with a pronounced kick-up in kilometres 13 and 14 where the slope increases to more than 10%. Expect the peloton to arrive en masse at its base but shatter immediately, with the first two kilometres being one the steepest sections of the climb. By the summit, only a small elite group will remain, with many of the leaders isolated from their teammates.

Knowing that there are three tough days to come may dissuade any all-out attacks up to Ax 3 Domaines, but even the slightest raising of the tempo is likely to be enough to create some major time gaps. For some, it will spell the end of any lingering hope of a podium or even a top-ten spot. Expect the front end of the race to be splintered into ones, twos and threes by the finish.

It could also be a key day in the King of the Mountains classification if one of the polka dot jersey contenders is brave enough to strike out on his own over the top of the Pailhères. With the GC men likely to be watching each other and trying not to use all their energy, it is perhaps the best remaining opportunity for someone to stay clear to claim a stage win. One for Armstrong himself, perhaps, who has been saving himself over the last few days? Or Carlos Sastre, winner here in 2003?

Excitement factor: 5/5.

Stage 15: Pamiers > Bagnères-de-Luchon (187.5 km)

This stage includes the passes of the Portet d’Aspet and the Ares, which featured on the Tour’s first visit to the Pyrenees in 1910. The former features a tricky descent which claimed the life of Fabio Casartelli, then a teammate of a young Lance Armstrong; the fifteenth anniversary of his fatal crash is the day before this stage.

But the biggest challenge today is the Port de Balès, a 19.3 km climb which starts fairly benignly before ramping up dramatically over its second half. There are two particularly vicious stretches of around 12% at around 10 and 15 km, where the weary will feel as if they are pedalling through treacle and which will provide a springboard for fast-accelerating riders such as Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck to attack.

The rapid 21 km descent to the finish will also provide chances for the top descenders to claim a win, assuming they can remain within sight of the leaders over the summit. Watch out for someone like Samuel Sánchez to throw caution to the winds here, but the odds are that we will not see a massive shake-up in the GC today.

Excitement factor: 4/5.

Stage 16: Bagnères-de-Luchon > Pau (199.5 km)

On day three of four in the Pyrenees, this stage piles on relentless pressure from the start, with an immediate 11 km ascent of the Col de Peyresourde followed by the 12.3 km climb up the Col d’Aspin, and then the first ascent of the Col du Tourmalet (the highest point in this year’s Tour), 17.1 long kilometres at an average of 7.3%. From the top of the Tourmalet, there is still the best part of 130 km to the finish, including the 29.2 km climb of the Col d’Aubisque. At least it is downhill the rest of the way from there, with a 60 km run to the finish in Pau and the blessed relief of the final rest day.

With the added bonus of a non-racing day to follow, a small group of riders could make a decisive break on the Tourmalet and stay clear until the finish. It could be the kind of day on which an alliance between Saxo Bank and Rabobank might come together to try to isolate Contador from his Astana teammates and set him up for multiple attacks on the Aubisque.

Excitement factor: 5/5.

Stage 17: Pau > Col du Tourmalet (174 km)

While the preceding days will have helped sort out the men from the boys, this final Pyrenean stage will, if the race follows the script, decide the battle for the yellow jersey.

After the short, sharp shock of the Côte de Renoir (only 2,2km, but 6% gradient) to shake away the cobwebs of the rest day, the riders will face three peaks of increasing difficulty, with the first category climbs of the Col de Marie-Blanque and Col du Soulor both averaging close to 8% slope, enough to shake loose anyone who is in even the slightest difficulty deep into the third week – which will be a lot of people. But we shouldn’t expect attacks from any of the big guns on any of these three climbs.

The action will be saved for the final climb of the day – and indeed the entire Tour – the second ascent to the summit of the Tourmalet. From this direction, it is 18.6 km at an average gradient of 7.5%. If all goes to form, this will be Schleck’s last chance to attack Contador and establish the cushion – at least a couple of minutes – he will need to compensate for the time he will inevitably lose in stage 19′s individual time trial. Equally, if any of the other favourites want to make a move up the order, they will have to throw caution to the wind. This final ascent should be the most spectacular hour of the entire Tour, with the elite riders throwing the kitchen sink at each other.

At the end of it, we will probably know the winner of the 2010 Tour, and we will definitely know the winner of the polka dot jersey, as there are no further categorised climbs in the race. Back Schleck or Contador to win, but expect attacks from various riders all the way up the mountain as the GC and King of the Mountains shake-outs take place.

Excitement factor: 5/5.

———-

For an analysis on the final battle for the yellow jersey, see my preview here.

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Tour de France preview, part 4: Key stages and prologue preview

July 3, 2010 8 Comments

The Tour de France is a long, long race, where both disaster and opportunity hide unseen around every corner. A tough mountain climb, a mass accident which splits the field, a puncture or a broken chain at an inopportune moment, even an apparently innocuous crosswind – all these things can, at any given moment, potentially damage any of the contenders’ yellow jersey aspirations beyond repair.

Having said that, some of the Tour’s 21 stages present more obvious pitfalls than others. For instance, the flat sprint stages generally have little bearing on the fate of the yellow jersey. And the final stage to Paris is little more than a procession – there is an unwritten rule that you do not attack the yellow jersey – and a homecoming jamboree for the sprinters on the Champs Élysées.

But here are my six stages to watch out for. They are the ones most likely to cause significant time gaps among the leaders, or at the very least provide the most explosive action. Odds are the Tour will be won and lost on one of the following:

Stage 3: Wanze > Arenberg Porte du Hainaut (213 km)

What would otherwise be a fairly dull, by-the-numbers sprinters’ stage as far as the GC contenders are concerned will be shaken – quite literally – into life as the race passes over seven sections of cobbled roads totalling 13.2 km, with 10.9 km coming in the last 28 km of the stage.

All the ingredients are there for a potentially catastrophic high-speed crash. The cobbled sections are narrow and bumpy, which will string out the main bunch. The peloton will almost certainly be in pursuit of an early escape group, so speeds will be high. The sprinters’ teams will all be fighting for position at the front of the pack. And the teams of the main yellow jersey contenders will want to do the same to ensure their leaders are in front of any accidents, not behind them. So there will most likely be more people than normal fighting over a smaller patch of bumpy road, all at full racing speed.

Everyone may get through unscathed, resulting in the usual bunch sprint and no time gaps. I wouldn’t count on it, though.

The last time the Tour featured a cobbled section – a mere 3.9 km on stage three of the 2004 edition – Iban Mayo went down in a high-speed crash in the middle of the peloton as the exact scenario outlined above unfolded. The Spaniard was badly banged up and lost nearly four minutes, killing his yellow jersey aspirations before the race had properly started.

Everyone will want to avoid the same fate this year, so expect tensions to be running high. The Tour will not be won on this early stage, but one or more of the contenders could certainly lose it.

Stage 8: Station des Rousses > Morzine-Avoriaz (189 km)

It is possible that the previous day’s stage, with six categorised climbs of increasing difficulty culminating in the final second category climb of the Côte de Lamoura, may catch out one of the GC contenders. In all likelihood, though, someone will send their team to the front to ride a fast enough tempo to dissuade anyone who fancies chancing their arm.

It’s more likely that this stage, featuring this year’s first two category one climbs and finishing at the ski village of Avoriaz – and with the benefit of the rest day to follow – will be the first real test for the leading riders. Historically, this was where Lance Armstrong would launch one of his trademark attacks, but in similar circumstances at Verbier last year it was his then-teammate Alberto Contador who attacked. As at Verbier, the ascent of Morzine - 14 km at an average gradient of 6.1%, but with a distinct kick-up near the top – is not the most taxing, but it is attractive enough for someone who is confident enough to lay down a marker and eke out perhaps 30 seconds or so on some of his rivals.

Look for Contador or Andy Schleck to attack in the closing kilometres as the gradient picks up, and for those GC riders who are lacking slightly in form to be exposed as a result.

Stage 14: Revel > Ax 3 Domaines (184.5 km)

The first category climb of Ax 3 Domaines last featured on the Tour in 2005, when it turned out to be a defining stage. Jan Ullrich‘s T-Mobile team successfully isolated Lance Armstrong, only for the American to absorb every attack and then ride away from the big German, gaining over 30 seconds en route to his seventh Tour win.

This year, it comes at the end of the first of four punishing days in the Pyrenees, and while the prospect of the following three stages will make the leaders think twice before attacking on the final 7.8 km climb, the fact it comes right off the back of the 15.5 km, 7.9% climb of the Port de Pailhères should apply considerable pressure to what will be a very small group of elite riders by the time they approach the upper slopes of the final climb. No one will win the Tour decisively today, but the group of genuine contenders will undoubtedly whittle down further on what is sure to be an attritional first day in the Pyrenees. It could also be a key day in the King of the Mountains classification if a climber is brave enough to strike out on his own over the top of the Pailhères.

Stage 16: Bagnères-de-Luchon > Pau (199.5 km)

On day three of four in the Pyrenees, this stage piles on relentless pressure from the start, with an immediate 11 km ascent of the Col de Peyresourde followed by the 12.3 km climb up the Col d’Aspin, and then the first ascent of the Col du Tourmalet (the highest point in this year’s Tour), 17.1 long kilometres at an average of 7.3%. From the top of the Tourmalet, there is stil the best part of 130 km to the finish, including the 29.2 km climb of the Col d’Aubisque. At least the riders will then be able to enjoy (if that is the right word) a gentle 60 km run down to the finish in Pau and the blessed relief of the final rest day.

With the added bonus of a non-racing day to follow, a small group of climbers and GC riders could make a decisive break on the Tourmalet and stay clear until the finish. It could be the kind of day on which an alliance between Saxo Bank and RadioShack might come together to try to isolate Contador from his Astana teammates and set him up for multiple attacks on the Aubisque.

Regardless, it is also likely to be a decisive day in the race for the polka dot jersey. And it will definitely be a day on which the sprinters will be carefully judging exactly how slowly they can afford to go to avoid elimination.

Stage 17: Pau > Col du Tourmalet (174 km)

While the preceding mountain stages will have helped sort out the men from the boys, it is extremely unlikely that anyone will have gained a decisive advantage. This final Pyrenean stage, however, is the one which could decide the battle for the yellow jersey.

After the short, sharp shock of the Côte de Renoir (only 2,2km, but 6% gradient) to shake away the cobwebs of the rest day, the riders will face three peaks of increasing difficulty, with the first category climbs of the Col de Marie-Blanque and Col du Soulor both averaging close to 8% slope, enough to shake loose anyone who is in even the slightest difficulty deep into the third week – which will be a lot of people. But we shouldn’t expect attacks from any of the big guns on any of these three climbs.

The action will be saved for the final climb of the day – and indeed the entire Tour – the second ascent to the summit of the Tourmalet. From this direction, it is 18.6 km at an average gradient of 7.5%. If all goes to form, this will be Andy Schleck’s last chance to attack Contador and establish the cushion – at least a couple of minutes – he will need to compensate for the time he will inevitably lose in stage 19′s individual time trial. Equally, if any of the other favourites remain within sniffing distance of the yellow jersey, they will have to throw caution to the wind. This final ascent should be the most spectacular hour of the entire Tour, with the elite riders throwing the kitchen sink at each other.

Stage 19: Bordeaux > Pauillac (52 km) – individual time trial

Depending on the outcome on the Tourmalet, the Tour’s lone individual time trial stage may prove to be a redundant spectacle. But if the yellow jersey’s advantage is two minutes or less, then it is all up for grabs.

With the ITT coming so late in the race, and with all the punishment the riders will have endured to this point, the form book may go out of the window. The stage win may prove to be beyond the GC contenders – it will probably go to a time trial specialist who has saved his legs in the Pyrenees – but that is neither here nor there. Contador will certainly fancy his chances of seizing or preserving the yellow jersey here, but if Levi Leipheimer, Cadel Evans or Bradley Wiggins, say, are within sight of the lead, do not rule them out either. Andy Schleck will be hoping he already has a hefty buffer by this point; if not, his hopes of taking overall victory will be vanishingly thin.

By the time the last rider crosses the finish line in Pauillac, we will finally know who the winner of the 2010 Tour de France is.

And so, finally, here is the potted summary of tomorrow’s prologue stage, which kicks the whole three weeks off.

Prologue preview:

Start & finish: Rotterdam > Rotterdam

Distance & type: 8.9km, prologue time trial

Prediction: Flat and long by prologue standards, expect the time trial specialists to dominate the standings, so it will be surprising if Fabian Cancellara – a multiple Tour prologue/time trial winner – is not in the top three. The major GC contenders will also be flat out to avoid early time losses, so look also for defending champion Alberto Contador and Sky‘s Bradley Wiggins as potential claimants of the first yellow jersey of the race. If you’re looking for a decent outside bet, it’s also worth considering HTC-Columbia’s Tony Martin, who beat Armstrong, Cancellara et al in the Tour de Suisse time trial last month.

Keep reading here for regular race analysis as the Tour progresses. For the rest of my Tour preview, click on the following links:

Part 1: Who to support?

Part 2: The Tour in numbers

Part 3: The contenders

For full coverage of the Tour de France, I would recommend either the official website or alternatively steephill.tv as your one-stop shop for race reports, photos and videos. Please also visit my friend Todd Kinsey’s blog for in-depth analysis from a competitive cyclist and endurance athlete.

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